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Put an evening to dinner face to face with European funding, the day of the celebration of the Minister of Finance Roberto Gualtieri for the arrival of the first sections of Recovery Fund and the prime minister’s speech to the nation, Giuseppe Conte. One of those enlightening nights because there is something prophetic about dealing with white collar finances these days. As in the ancient cave of the Pythia, when the word Mes appears, the air around him becomes leaden, rarefied, the breath slows down, the voice becomes hoarse. It only remains to listen knowing that all opinion is destined to change depending on the side from which it is observed. So, I wait for coffee time to ask those who know more than me if Conte’s resignation from the MEDE was good and what happened to the rest of the money promised by Europe.
“At one point – says my interlocutor – it seemed that the China it no longer existed, and that the only problem with the pandemic was Italy. A wave of selfish solidarity arose towards our country, driven mainly by two reasons: on the one hand, it was necessary to segregate ourselves into emergency shutdown to prevent the infection from spreading in Europe, on the other hand, it was impossible not to face the crisis of a country ‘nucleus‘of the European Union within which sovereign political forces emerge. Therefore, it is decided to offer us a palliative. Month and Recovery funds are available. The Month appears in a timely manner, closely linked to the emergency and its consequences (240,000 million in total of which 37 are allocated to health care). I understand that no one has yet had the courage and political ability to use it. It has become such an etymological problem that if they had called it Shem it would be completely different. It reminds too much of the Month of Greece when it was practically commissioned and placed under guardianship by Europe “- turning the spoon in the coffee, pauses, then continues -” Conte’s fear, but especially of the starry penta is clear. Even if Europe promises us that the commissioner will never apply, in the long run, who can say what will prevail? After all, this is just a repeal of the stability pact, but let’s say we stray from the target. Could this be a sufficient variable to withdraw the exemption? “.
In the end we will not use the Month for what President Conte declared: is it good or bad?
“The MES represented an opportunity to get fresh and immediate money that would have made a difference. They had to be taken immediately without too many reservations as soon as the exceptions were confirmed. In the MES (a fund with a Luxembourg corporate legal figure that they joined 17 states) Italy has a different weight than the Union and could better govern the balance. The choice was myopic and we will rule it out in the long term. However, beyond this, Conte’s message today demonstrates something else: fear to a tear with the notoriously anti-ESM 5 stars, the awareness that today the decision would be late and risky, the willingness to continue the mandate and present yourself as a winning leader in Europe. Finally, do a favor to France and Germany who supported to the ESM for Italy, whose election today would be indefensible in light of a widespread pandemic with Italy once again trapped by the usual problems. A regret? or of courage, 240 billion would have made or the difference “.
Apparently everyone in Europe has benefited from our learning curve: Italy has been the pilot fish in managing the pandemic. Good or bad, the Italian example has served to make others accept the idea, monitor strategies, limit outbreaks. Meanwhile, our country faces months of lockdowns that have undermined the economy and employment, adding to the problem of a health pandemic that of an economic pandemic. But that’s another story, now my guests focus on the footprints of the promised European funding. So I ask: if the Month is only afraid to name it, what will happen to the 209 billion (82 non-refundable and 127 out of a total loan of 750 billion) from the Recovery Fund destined for Italy?
“If we do not benefit quickly from the promised loans and with the right ideas on how to use them – continues my interlocutor – I am not sure that when we ask them they will all be so ready and available. We wasted time being picky and we are still stuck without having prepared real investments, while the crumbs are reaching our regions. We must hope that someone in Europe can question the total size of these loans and especially the allocation to Italy given that all of Europe is now falling to its knees in the face of the pandemic. Even that initial solidarity, however never characteristic of the European Union, would collapse. “
If I understand correctly, have we missed the magic moment?
“I have serious doubts about the non-reimbursable aid, given the previous resistance of the so-called ‘frugal countries’. In general, nobody speaks out clearly, but I am delighted to see the opposite. Today we have a government that sails in sight. It will seem strange but in this situation, even the reappearance of the virus itself, facilitates the proverbial ‘we ammuina’ of the Bourbon army, and reinforces a man without true political representation like Conte who in the meantime can cover himself behind the fig leaf of financing saying : I went to Europe I took this money and I also feel entitled to lead the dance and belittle some issues of personal consent. Although in the end there are no solutions and the country is still in emergency, he can boast of having had a line of credit in Europe. And continue to rule by covering the social wounds with the bureaucracy. But the shirts are destined to tighten. In five / six months he will get sick again. The problems will be eliminated. Economic emas and Italy will need real leadership from the gentleman (or it could also be a lady) who will have to sit at the negotiating table with France and Germany who, in the meantime, have experienced what we complain about. I make a prediction: they will tell us that they do not want to give us the promised loans of 209 billion out of the 750, so they will ask to triple the amount. Common evil means joy. It is a pity that the planned recovery plan is financed through contributions from the member states of the European Union and we will have to increase our share by receiving less than we will have to contribute. But, in the worst case, they could also say that there are those in Europe who are in the worst situation and Italy no longer needs them so much ”.
The question remains: how many of those promised billions can become an instrument in which Italy can “leverage” based on a project?
“If, for example, you ask me if Italy can use the Recovery Fund to finance the 5G project (which for the national system is worth 40 billion), I answer no. It is Italy’s fault that preparatory work to bring them both because Europe It has not yet completed the process. But the real problem is another: we are sure that the countries that were previously generous to Italy in the logic of containing and circumscribing the covid problem in the Italian territory, are today still equally available being in The same situation as us if not worse? I am thinking of countries with a mixed attitude between frugality and self-referentiality such as Holland, the toughest and least supportive wing of Germany or those more used to taking than to giving.
In short, listening to the considerations of those who chew it out of the air, the feeling is that the opportunity to ride a tiger was lost when Europe demanded enormous sacrifices from Italy to block the spread of the virus. It is not so unlikely that European solidarity, expressed through clenched teeth, will suddenly dissolve by a nationalist resurgence of countries now affected by the pandemic. Worse still, if the money arrived and in a few years a new condition of normality weakened by the crisis were restored, the call to respect the rules would return with greater clarity. At that time our country – at the top of the EU in unemployment and debt due to its structural rather than cyclical nature – will be able to maintain the pacts and avoid the withdrawal of exceptions?
Meanwhile, the diners leave and unsurprisingly the unsolved questions land at the bottom of the mugs left on the table. Unfortunately, there are no ways to figure it out in your coffee grounds.
