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Antonio Socci
The vital parameters of the Conte bis government yesterday indicated “death”, to take for granted the words of Ettore Rosato, vice president of the Chamber and national coordinator of “Italia Viva”, who declared: “Today there is no longer trust between the majority and the prime minister. ”In fact, once, after a similar outsourcing by an important member of a government party, the prime minister reportedly went to the Quirinal to resign. But by now the institutional and political grammar has skipped Totally, and we know that words like Rosato’s suggest, in any case, a deferred transfer. In fact, the newspapers have been putting on the page for days the chronicle of an announced death that seems to have definitely occurred after January 6. In In this case, the Epiphany, which “takes away all the parts”, would also free us from the rioters (as Vittorio Feltri called them yesterday).
There are those who argue (usually those who are part of the government) that a crisis in the midst of the pandemic would be irresponsible and would be judged as deplorable by the country. On the contrary, many in the country think that the weary survival of such a disastrous government in such a dramatic crisis would be irresponsible. The worst scenario is the “ammuina” in the event that everything is resolved in a carousel of armchairs. This would likely be perceived by the country as an unacceptable power play in the building, as a display of cynicism, in the midst of a health and economic emergency. In fact, if the ruling parties believe that the current government is doing well and delivering excellent results, they should let it work. If they find it inappropriate and disappointing, they should change it for the good of the country.
No one, even among the ruling parties, can really claim that this government is good. It would be impossible: “Our country is the one with the highest mortality rate in Europe,” Rosato recalled. And the economic data is also disastrous. According to Rosato, “the other government partners agree with us.” But in government parties the desire to cling to power prevails, in any case redesigning the map of ministerial seats and reducing the overwhelming power of the centralizing prime minister. However, the desire for a new partition is tempered by fear, as the opening of a possible government crisis could have unpredictable results and eventually destabilize their monopoly of power. That is why they are looking for ways to replace a minister without directly opening a crisis. But with the so-called “reorganization”, a term that comes from the first republic, when there was a dispute to redistribute the quotas of power, can two or three ministers be changed without opening the crisis? Difficult also for the unknown that Matteo Renzi’s “Living Italy” represents. Not because the former prime minister’s party is insensitive to the idea of re-discussing ministerial seats. But for an underlying strategic reason that, for Renzi, is much more important. The Florentine politician knows three certain things. The first is that this government, which has already failed in the fight against the pandemic, is absolutely incapable of dealing with the great economic emergency that is hitting the country and that could cause it to collapse. The second is this: moving forward with the Conte government, we immediately reached the white semester and then the elections of 2023 and “Italia viva”, completely marginal, with any electoral law it would become a residual group (also due to the cut in parliamentarians) .
Look for a new phase – The third: in case of a government crisis, there will be no early elections (also because only Lega and FdI would like them) and Renzi would have the opportunity to launch (perhaps under the name of Draghi) a “high profile” government and finally “up to date” to get out of the health emergency and face the economic emergency “as competent”. It would be the strategist (as in the summer of 2019) of a new stage, with a government that -in its designs- would divide the two poles and also the M5S giving Renzi the political centrality that, in perspective, in his hopes, would allow that a moderate pole will be added around it. Of course, in January it may also happen that Renzi backs down and takes a seat in the redistribution of ministerial seats. But this way he knows he has no future. While the turning point that he has in mind would be promoted by him as an urgent rescue plan – health and economic – for Italy. An emergency government in which he would be the protagonist and to which Conte and Zingaretti could only oppose the tired fatigue, for three years, of a government without a compass that gets bogged down even with the dates of the botched Christmas Dpcm. The game starts.
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