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In Belarus, protests against President Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994, have been going on for more than a month, without losing steam but at the same time without achieving significant results, especially the promise of new elections. On Sunday there was another large demonstration in the capital Minsk, more than 100,000 participants spoke about it, but there were also arrests and violence of an intensity that had only been seen in the early stages of the protests. “Both sides are at a standstill, which could lead to violence and could increase the possibility of a Russian intervention to maintain order,” wrote journalist Thomas Grove in Wall street journal, referring to the eventuality that has been talked about since the beginning of the demonstrations: that of Russia’s involvement in the Belarusian crisis, which is opposed by both the United States and the European Union.
– Read also: What Russia wants to do in Belarus
The fact that the crisis in Belarus is stagnant does not mean that there have not been important developments in recent weeks.
The most notable was the forced exile and detention of key opposition leaders, such as Maria Kolesnikova, arrested by the regime’s security forces and charged with an attempted coup. Something has also moved on the Russian front. President Vladimir Putin, a traditional ally of Lukashenko, approved the creation of a “reserve force” ready to intervene in Belarus “in case the situation gets out of control.”
Riot police during an anti-government demonstration in Minsk, Sunday, September 13 (TUT.by via AP)
According to some experts, including reporter Andrew Higgins from the New York TimesPutin’s move would have shown a greater resolve by Russia in supporting Lukashenko, after several initial warnings, but it would not have completely ruled out the possibility of a Russian intervention in favor of a transition of power. The same idea was expressed by five sources close to the Russian government cited by Bloomberg, and remained anonymous for security reasons, who argued that Putin could encourage an “eventual succession” in Belarus, hence the replacement of Lukashenko as head of government, without however accepting that the opposition comes to power through protests street.
A possible Russian intervention in Belarus is one of the most debated issues since the beginning of the protests, and will probably be one of the issues that Lukashenko and Putin will discuss during the meeting scheduled for today, Monday, September 14, in the Russian city of Sochi. .
The meeting, the first between the two leaders since the start of the protests, could also have provoked brutal violence by the security forces in recent days, carried out among others by agents with their faces covered and without signs of recognition. Arsen Sivitski, director of the Center for Foreign and Strategic Policy Studies in Minsk, told the Wall street journal that the violence and arrests may have been ordered by Lukashenko with the aim of arriving at the meeting with Putin in a position of strength with respect to the opposition, to win decisive support from the Russian government.
The arrest of a protester during an anti-government protest in Minsk on Sunday, September 13 (AP Photo)
Despite huge protests and discussion about possible European and US sanctions against the regime, it appears at the moment that Lukashenko may remain in power in Belarus, for various reasons.
First of all because, for the last twenty-six years, Lukashenko has created a power structure that revolves around him. He has surrounded himself with loyal people, expelling and arresting his political opponents and building a robust and extensive security apparatus, typical of authoritarian systems, and has personally chosen the politicians and officials who occupy all the important positions within the government. The inability shown by the protesters to create significant divisions within the Belarusian elite, said Valery Karbalevich, Lukashenko’s political scientist and biographer, was the reason for the protests’ failure, at least so far.
Second, despite the Russian government’s mistrust of Lukashenko, dating back long before the controversial August elections, the Belarusian president could count on Russian opposition to any overthrow of the regime through protests, fearing that the same would happen. same. happen in Russia. Putin continues to hold a non-final position on Lukashenko, but so far the lack of alternatives has convinced Russia to support the current president.
Lukashenko also appears to be helped by the lack of a strong international reaction. The European Union, having agreed to impose sanctions on the Belarusian regime for violence against protesters, had to step back because of the opposition from Cyprus (the opposition from Cyprus has nothing to do with what is happening in Belarus: the government Cypriot would like the European Union to approve tougher sanctions against Turkey over a dispute over the exploitation of resources in the eastern Mediterranean, and has tried to link the issue of resources in the Mediterranean with that of the sanctions against Belarus). The UN Security Council, a body that has the power to approve international sanctions, will hardly intervene against Lukashenko, because to take any type of relevant action it would have to overcome the Russian veto.
The United States, for its part, has announced selective sanctions, therefore directed against some people responsible for the repression, which are nevertheless considered not effective enough to have a significant effect on the crisis.
– Read also: Why are Greece and Turkey fighting in the eastern Mediterranean?
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