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The Covid emergency in Italy shows some signs of improvement, but we are still a long way from being able to say that we are out of the woods. Attention is and must be maximum.
Probably, as many experts affirm, one above all being the consultant of the Ministry of Health Walter Ricciardi, Containment measures against the spread of the Coronavirus will still accompany us throughout 2021: at least until we achieve herd immunity, we will have to continue wearing the mask and maintain social distancing, despite the vaccine, regarding which, in addition, the possibility of introducing a mandatory health passport in some contexts is discussed.
Since, as President of the Higher Institute of Health, Silvio Brusaferro, The New Years data should be taken with a grain of salt as the number of buffers is less during the Christmas period and therefore we will have a real assessment of the trend during the holidays around January 14-15, the incidence of the epidemic remains very high and the impact remains in most of the country.
New year, the Rt index rises again
That is, we are in a situation in which there is a decrease in the incidence of Covid, although still high, but a tendency toRt index increase.
In addition, it continues to be observed moderate or high risk in most regions of an uncontrolled and uncontrollable epidemic. Situation that confirms the need to maintain the line of rigor of the mitigation measures adopted during the Christmas holidays.
The situation as of December 31, the last day of the year of the pandemic, the national Rt index continues to increase. The transmissibility indicator is touched 0.93, increasing for the third week in a row. However, the curve is tapering slightly across the country, although it has slowed down. The epidemic in Italy remains serious due to a high impact on welfare services.
This is what emerges from the draft of the monitoring the ISS control room concerning the Covid emergency for the reference period 22-27 December (you can find it here last week). The situation is different in the countries around us, which, on the other hand, show a regrowth curve, a matter of particular concern.
Regions at risk
Anticipating the data during the press conference to present the data from the regional monitoring of the control room, it emerges how 5 Regions have a greater than 50% chance of exceeding the critical threshold occupation of beds in the medical area in 30 days and 3 regions for intensive care.
9 Autonomous regions and provinces classified as low risk, 11 are classified as moderate risk, of which 3 have a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month if the current transferability remains unchanged, namely:
- Emilia romagna
- Aosta Valley
- Veneto.
Sardinia has a “not assessable” risk classification (and is equated to high risk) given the low percentage of completeness of the data.
3 Regions have an Rt index close to 1, that is, the critical threshold, while others 3 exceed the alarm value of 1. It is about:
Like last week, the the most worrying situation is precisely that of Veneto, which in addition to a punctual Rt greater than 1, registers a particularly high incidence. The old “Veneto model” has therefore clearly faded in this second wave.
Pressure on hospitals
One observes General decrease in the impact of the epidemic on social services. with occupancy rates for ICU beds and medical areas below the critical threshold across the country for the first time since late October. However, 10 regions still have an employment rate in intensive care or medical areas above the critical threshold.
Overall, the number of people admitted to intensive care decreased slightly from 2,731 (12/21/2020) to 2,565 (12/28/2020); the number of people hospitalized in medical areas also decreased from 25,145 (12/21/2020) to 23,932 (12/28/2020). This trend at the national level underlies strong interregional variations.
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