New total blockade, why do we talk about it again in Italy?

The words of the adviser to the Minister of Health Walter Ricciardi invoking a new hard lock, like the one we live in March 2020, unleashed a real bomb. Ricciardi is not new to calling for the utmost rigor to defeat the virus, but today he does so with the newly installed government, hoping that Draghi will receive and support. #emergency shutdown already convertedto a Twitter trend with comments of all kinds, but because in Italy we are now talking about rigid blockade with the closure of shops, restaurants, schools with the possibility of leaving home just to go to work?

Data in Italy

Ricciardi speaks of a closure of two, three, four weeks, the time needed to retest and monitor and vaccinate at a high rate with the aim of limit the circulation of the virus to less than 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. In short, what a large part of Europe is trying to do, such as France and Germany currently locked up. But, how are the contagion data in Italy? Are they such that they justify rigid closures? In truth, the mean variation in the last 4 weeks of -5% mother in the last month there has not been a sharp decline in the curve epidemic, which on the other hand remained fairly stable, at least in terms of the number of new infections, with a slight increase in the last week. It goes better with me deceased where in the last four weeks there has been a steady decline, with a variation of -26%. In Germany, A country in rigid confinement, which is being vaccinated more or less with the rhythms of Italy, the closures have worked: if four weeks ago the new infections every seven days were close to 125,000, this week they have dropped to just over 50,000 with a variation of -46% and also a decrease in the number of deaths: -35%.

What scares scientists

What scares experts for the truth is the spread of variants. Almost 20% of the positive cases in Italy (1 in 5, exactly 17.8%) belong to the English variant, B.1.1.7 according to a sample survey commissioned by the Ministry of Health with significant disparities in the territory with Regions that touch 50-59%. In France the prevalence of the English variant of 20-25%, in Germany above 20%. We know the English variant is at least 50% more contagious It is clear that a boom in infections was expected and consequently a new increase in deaths and great stress for the hospital system. In 5 or 6 weeks, it could completely or almost completely replace the other strain currently circulating, said the president of the Istituto Superiore di Sanit, Silvio Brusaferro. In Lombardy In recent days, infections have doubled and the presence of variants is about 30%. They could reach 60/80% in the coming weeks, explained the Councilor for Welfare of the Lombardy Region, Letizia moratti. In short, the epidemic has begun a new phase of expansion (Rt at 0.95, with an increasing trend) and an average of more than a thousand new positives per day is expected and even more at the end of the month, with an impact between two and three times more violent than the current one. The Brazilian variant is also circulating in Italy: outbreaks due to this strain have been located in Perugia and Chiusi. Research is underway to calculate the spread. Many scientists, in the presence of variants, push to vaccinate as quickly as possible because a real danger could come from a variant of the coronavirus generated by the selective pressure, exerted by the same vaccine, a bit like occurs in the phenomenon of resistance to antibiotics. Selective pressure is the event triggered by the use of antibiotics to treat an infection caused by drug-sensitive and resistant bacteria. In fact, the use of the drug eliminates the sensitive bacteria responsible for the infection but, if present, not the resistant pathogenic bacteria, which therefore have the possibility to grow and spread. In the same way, a vaccine that does not work well in certain variants could favor their spread.

All the doubts of the scientists

In light of all these elements, the diffusion of variants, the ongoing vaccination campaign, the epidemic curve that does not go down, one wonders if Italy really needs to shut down as in March. Andrea Crisanti, virologist at the University of Padua, interviewed by To print he has no doubts: now the confinement is needed, the red zones are not enough to contain the variants, it had already been done in December. Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation, to the microphones of the broadcast Italy is waking up On Radio Cusano Campus he commented: A total blockage for 2 weeks would lower the curve to be able to resume monitoring, otherwise we must continue with stop & go throughout 2021. Massimo Galli, The infectious disease specialist at Milan’s Sacco hospital agrees with Ricciardi in principle because everyone can see that the issue of regions of color has not worked out. Fabrizio Pregliasco, virologist and health director of the Galeazzi Hospital in Milan more moderate and sees strict blocking as impractical option: From a medical point of view, the closures are the best option to re-control the disease, regain tracking and be able to carry out a vaccination campaign with serenity, without the hospitals getting stuck but a commitment is needed because complete supply chains of workers are devastated and there is a great social rebellion, it is also necessary to evaluate the sustainability of such a rigid closure. Proposals We have to grit our teeth for another two or three months, maybeI recalibrate the parameters of the passage of the Regions from one color to another, establishing red zones ah hoc in the zones where the buds appear. The color system worked, it allowed us to mitigate the epidemic, adjusting the speed as if it were water coming out of a tap: we have not dropped from 50 cases per 100,000 inhabitants but we have slowed the spread of infections. We are in a crucial phase and personal responsibility is also essential: distance, the correct placement of the mask, hand washing and ventilation of the premises also defend against variations. Matteo Bassetti, director of the Infectious Diseases Clinic of the San Martino Hospital in Genoa, very critical. Asking for a general shutdown is a barbaric measure, without scientific foundation. The solutions are specific, provincial, localized, surgical and rapid blocks. Do we have Sardinia and Val D’Aosta almost white and do we treat them like Umbria? For me it is not correct.
Roberto Burioni Virologist and Vita-Salute University professor San Raffaele on Twitter writes: The problem is not solved with closures that only serve to buy time. It is resolved with the vaccine. Now let’s hurry. Francesco Vaia, director of the Inmi Spallanzani in Rome, guest of RaiNews24 opposed to the generalized confinement: The measures we have must be applied with severity. No severe locking is needed, but surgical closures are needed. A severe lockdown today, yes, could certainly bring benefits in terms of preventing the circulation of new Sars-CoV-2 variants, he says. Maria Rita Gismondo, director of the Laboratory of Clinical Microbiology, Virology and Bioemergency Diagnosis at Sacco Hospital in Milan – it would be a disaster from a psychological, social and economic point of view. The well-being of the person must also be taken into account, which depends not only on the success in defeating the virus, which we certainly all want, but also on the ability to find a fair measure of restrictions in this battle.