new measures or there will be 200 deaths a day

The time of risk, hesitation and handshake in hospitals is over. The UK wants to be responsible in the fight against the coronavirus. With the number of ICU patients and deaths at very low levels, the population is becoming too relaxed and does not comply with social distancing measures. But the virus continues to spread, albeit in a less severe and lethal way, and with the fall things could start to get worse again. This is why the government of Boris johnson it is studying new interventions to avoid the darkest scenarios, interventions that should be presented tomorrow.

And to convince the British of the need for radical action (and certainly not popular with the country in the grip of the economic crisis), today London has let science speak, faces known and appreciated by citizens, those of the two main advisers to the government: the medical director, Chris whitty, and the chief scientific advisor, sir Patrick Vallance. In a completely unusual way, the two scientists conducted a live briefing on the country’s networks to explain the state of affairs and the risks looming on the horizon if we don’t cover ourselves. Yesterday, the new positives were 3,900 and the trend shows that cases approximately double every week with the R index, which indicates the progress of the spread of the disease, which is increasing. This means that at this rate, the United Kingdom could return in October to a level of 50,000 coronavirus infections a day, which could lead to an average of 200 deaths a day. It is only the worst case, the worst possible scenario, but it is a real and possible scenario, they stress, if nothing is done.

“We have literally turned a corner, although only relatively recently. At this point, the seasons are against us. The end of fall and winter benefit respiratory viruses and are very likely to benefit the spread of Covid,” he warned . Whitty. “As the disease spreads between age groups, we expect to see more hospitalizations and, therefore, sadly deaths. The message is simple, the virus has not changed its scope and propensity to cause illness and death.” Vallance echoed, in an attempt to deny the idea that now Covid-19 has become less dangerous.

Of course, hospitals are now better prepared, there are medicines, but the elderly and vulnerable are still at great risk. “Anyone who believes that breaking the rules only puts himself in danger is wrong. Every time you get sick, the chain of infections feeds back and that chain will sooner or later reach more fragile people ”and therefore“ this is not a problem for others. This is everyone’s problem, “said Whitty. Also, Vallance added, the idea of ​​having achieved some herd immunity is woefully wrong: according to estimates by national experts, only 8% of the population could have developed antibodies, a percentage that rises to 17% in London. “But the level of protection is decreasing,” said the scientist, and therefore it will not protect forever those who are already sick.

The message comes from an ad hoc meeting called by Johnson with Whitty himself and with the Secretary of State for Health. Matt hancock and the Minister of Finance, the Chief of Finance, Rishi Sunak, to discuss new measures after the local tightening already recently imposed on a total of 15 million people in cities and counties struggling with the most alarming outbreaks. The first calls for stricter measures, some even speak of a new two-week lockdown to hit the peak of infections, and the second calls for protecting the economy, which is already bad enough. It is up to Johnson to try to find a meeting point between the two needs, and the compromise could be one more squeeze into social life, with new restrictions in pubs and restaurants, so that at least life continues in the workplace.

However, a new blockade like the one in April seems unlikely because, as the two experts pointed out, in addition to the consequences on the economy, the consequences on the psyche of people and on the treatment of other diseases would also be devastating. A harsh national quarantine for Whitty “could cause damage to the economy that could result in unemployment, poverty, deprivation, all of which have long-term health effects.”