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The last follow-up, related to the week of October 19 to 25, assigned Italy a national Rt of 1.70. A number that in the new report could approach 2, with a marked worsening of the health system’s ability to respond to the emergency. In fact, there are already 15 regions where it is estimated that intensive care will go into crisis in about thirty days.
The regions under the lens
From the perspective of the last report, 11 regions were described as “high risk”, on the one hand due to the figures obtained from the 21 indicators, and on the other due to a collection of data in some cases considered unreliable. They are Abruzzo (Rt 1.4), Basilicata (Rt 1.04), Calabria (Rt 1.66), Liguria (Rt 1.54), Lombardy (Rt 2.09), Piedmont (Rt 2.16), Puglia (Rt 1.65), Sicily (Rt 1, 42), Toscana (Rt 1.41), Valle d’Aosta (Rt 1.89) and Veneto (Rt 1.46). Under the lens of CTS to enter the red stage, there are five other regions and an autonomous province: Campania, Liguria, the autonomous province of Bolzano, Valle d’Aosta, Liguria and Puglia.
Measurements for the red stage
The Ministry of Health, with the help of CTS experts, has already equipped itself with a kind of “toolbox” that dictates guidelines for public health authorities. In case of high / very high risk, therefore red, for at least three consecutive weeks, extraordinary interventions are planned, based on physical distancing, with the closure of discos, bars, restaurants, initially only at specific times, to avoid , for example, night life. Then with greater rigidity and generalized or localized restrictions. The indications include regional and provincial restrictions.
The red alert leads to the closure of schools and universities, with the activation of distance lessons, limiting mobility in areas with high transmission and agile work in specific areas. The expansion of the Covid hotels, the activation of additional staff to support the Covid department and a reshuffle of the detection and contact tracing activities are expected.
There are also temporary local restrictions, for at least three weeks, at the subprovincial level for the red zones. In these cases, the Rt of the regions subject to the measures has a Rt greater than 1.5.
