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The Rt contagion index in Italy fell to 1.08 in the week 16-22 of November, against 1.18 the previous week, with 10 regions that already have an index below 1, that is, they are officially downhill. This is what we read in the draft of the Follow-up report of the Ministry of Health-Iss. Which also reports as “17 Regions to November 24 had passed at least a critical threshold in the medical area or intensive care. If the current transmissibility is maintained, almost all the Autonomous Regions or Provinces have a probability greater than 50% of exceeding at least one of these thresholds in the next month.
The regions with Rt less than 1 are: Calabria (0.92, but the data is considered unreliable), Lazio (0.88), Liguria (0.76), Market (0.93), Piedmont (0.89), autonomous province of Trento (0.81), Puglia (0.99), Sardinia (0.71), Umbria (0.74), Aosta Valley (0.99).
They have Rt equal to or greater than 1, instead: Abruzzo (1.06), Basilicata (1.21), Campania (1), Emilia romagna (1.07), Friuli Venezia Giulia (1.09), Lombardy (1,17), Molise (1.17), autonomous province of Bolzano (1), Sicily (1.04), Tuscany (1,2), Veneto (1,2).
The Rt index table in the regions
Shortly before the publication of the draft, the governor of Lombardy Attilio Fontana had announced on Twitter that “thanks to the sacrifices of the Lombards, the epidemiological data was appreciated, now we are in the orange zone and we will be able to reopen businesses.” In the afternoon came the confirmation of the Government with the order signed by Minister Speranza that changed the classification of the regions.
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The draft stresses that the speed of transmission of the epidemic in Italy is slowing down and it has reached Rt levels close to 1 in many Regions / PA. Also, the draft says, for the first time in several weeks the incidence calculated in the last 14 days has decreased nationwide. These data are encouraging and point to the impact of the mitigation measures implemented in recent weeks, but the impact nonetheless remains. still too high to allow sustainable management (according to data from the bulletin released today, there are 28,352 new cases and 827 deaths). In addition, the document establishes that the number of Regions / PAs that have been there is still high classified as high risk and / or equated to high risk: there are ten in total, while another seven of those with moderate risk have a high probability of progress to high risk next month. Therefore, after reading the conclusions, it will be necessary to reach levels of transmissibility significantly lower than 1.
For these reasons, the document confirms the need to maintain drastic reduction of physical interactions between the people. It is essential that the population avoid all occasions of contact with people outside their home that are not strictly necessary and stay home as much as you can. “This trend should not lead to a premature relaxation of measures or a decrease in attention to behaviors” and is “necessary maintain and / or strengthen the measures mitigation based on the level of risk identified “.
November 27, 2020 (change November 27, 2020 | 20:00)
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