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The English “mutant” Sars-Cov-2? “He’s the new bully in the neighborhood,” he sums up with his usual understatement. Massimo galli Head of Infectious Diseases at the Sacco Hospital and Professor at the Milan State University. On Sunday, December 27, he will be one of the first doctors in Italy to undergo the anti-Covid vaccination. The fact is, this is the new neighborhood bully, at least in the southern part of Britain, where it quickly proved to be the most widespread and widespread viral strain. But land the information is still too little to be able to say more definite things. It certainly has a transmission capacity that seems much more efficient than all the other strains we’ve had before. IS we have to watch it».
How far it can spread: it is already in Europe, Italy and Hong Kong
But is this “mutant” really that contagious? According to the New York Times (article here), Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, estimates that the variant has a transmission rate increased from 50 to 70% compared to other variants in the UK. Certainly its presence on the European continent is a good indicator of its capabilities. The strain with the mutation also made its appearance in Italy. Two known cases so far: one smell – a 42-year-old working in London – and one in the province of Ancona, where it was isolated from the Virology laboratory directed by Professor Stefano Menzo assisted by Professor Patrizia Bagnarelli who are also part of the national research group to know (acronym for “Sars Cov2 Initiative Research Company”). “We conducted a survey among the samples collected in the last week and we have identified not the entire viral genome, but a partial sequence,” the specialist explains to AdnAdnkronos Salute. Of the small portion we have a well-founded suspicion that it is the English variant, although it takes a few more days to isolate the virus“The patient from the Marche region does not present any particular symptoms apart from a cold: he is now isolated with his two relatives, but did not need hospitalization. They certainly have not been to England recently, so there would be no connection to the country British: the single regional health authority (Asur) Marche has launched an epidemiological investigation to trace the contagion map. Two cases have been registered in Hong Kong. These are two students who have returned from Great Britain, according to reports from the Center for Health Protection. One of the two students recovered and was released from the hospital. where he was hospitalized, the second is still hospitalized. The people who had contact with the two children are in quarantine.
the causes are still unknown
On its nature and why it acquired a “competitive advantage” over previously known stocks, experts are still investigating. «« What differentiates it from others is a combination of mutations (here the analysis on its dangerousness). But in particular the one in position 501In other words, one of the six residues that are in the position where the viral peak interacts with Ace-2, the virus receptor in our cells, could make a difference. N501Y is a non-synonymous mutation that, therefore, implies a variation in the characteristics of the beak, perhaps capable of make it more efficient for the virus to enter the cell of the guest, but everything remains to be proved, ”explains Galli.
The fundamental role of individual behaviors
And the speed of propagation? “Be a super spreader (i.e., Sars-Cov-2 positive person with a very high viral load, ed, here the article on his paper) was infected with this strain that could be more contagious because the virus that “sheds” is more efficient in infecting. Some testimonials, on the other hand, tell us that probably in Great Britain they are more resistant to restrictions than in our country. It seems strange to think of English less disciplined than us, but it seems so. So individual behaviors may have paved the way for the ‘neighborhood bully’. «The three people from Ancona found infected with the English strain tell me they are asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic. Which would help confirm that this variant is more widespread, but is probably not “bad” anymore. However, if it is more prevalent, it will have more cases and therefore more people will go to the hospital and ultimately more deaths. Not because the virus is badder, but simply because the infected become more and if the percentage of serious cases remains the same, their absolute number increases fatally. Thus, individual behaviors may have paved the way to the “neighborhood bully”. ‘The point is that, once again, even in this variant it has been seen that the three Ancona people infected with the English strain are basically asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic. Thus it is not a worse variant but more widespread. The bottom line, however, is that the more prevalent it is, the more people will have to go to the hospital and the more deaths it will have. Not because the virus is worse, but simply because the infected become more.
Strengthen the surveillance network
On the other hand Sars-Cov-2 is not new to “skin change”, which is a peculiar characteristic of these microorganisms to ensure greater survival. Professor Galli recalls: “This has already happened to us, and of all this we were not in the least aware when that tension with the D614G mutation penetrated among the first in Italy, it proved to be much more efficient than the others in diffusion, so much so that for a long time we had not been able to find other variants but this, which was responsible for almost the entire first wave here. While other variants probably already existed, they only acted as secondary actors. For this, the surveillance network is essential. «In Britain, a network of universities that sequence viruses at full speed has been funded with 20 million pounds.. The centers have managed to perform more than 50,000 Sars-Cov2 sequences. In Italy we have the Scire group and, although we only depend on private donations, we have managed to work a lot and publish important data. But as a surveillance system we would also need something more robust to understand how this virus evolves. And it is essential in case mutant leaks appear, that is, to identify early strains that are not covered by the vaccine. Although I hope not, this is possible and must be taken into account: I will be vaccinated among the first in the belief that it is appropriate and useful for me and for everyone to do so. But this does not mean that we should continue to monitor what will happen and pay close attention. He adds Massimo Ciccozzi, Professor of Medical Statistics and Molecular Epidemiology at the Bio-Medico Campus of the University of Rome: “It is possible that this” English variant “has been circulating in Italy for some time but we didn’t realize it because we didn’t do molecular surveillance, which, on the other hand, is what must be done to take into account the variants that circulate in a certain area. We did a job, in prepublication, where we show that there are at least 13 variants circulating in Italy. This is due to mutations in the virus but they do not alter its danger.
The unconfirmed hypothesis of increased contagiousness in children
Some scientists have hypothesized that increased transmission is at least in part the result of how it infects children (here the article on its role in the spread of the virus). as well World Health Organization believes that the English mutation of the new coronavirus can be “transmitted more easily by young people and children” but “more studies are being carried out in this regard: This was revealed by the special envoy of the UN organization for Covid, David Nabarro. Now the fear, at least in Britain, where the variant has spread very quickly, is that this could compromise the long-awaited reopening of schools after the Christmas holidays. Meanwhile, Professor Mark Harris, a virologist at the University of Leeds, warned that ‘there are fears that if the virus actually replicates and grows better in children, it will have an amplifying effect on the entire UK population. ” Juan SebastianI, a mathematician at the National Research Center, the UK wave has probably already invaded Europe: “The resumption of the virus circulation appears to be present throughout western and central Europe. excluding the Scandinavian Peninsula, Iceland, Portugal, Belgium and Luxembourg. The first states in the East where there is no recovery from the virus are, from North to South, Poland, Austria and Slovenia, while there is an increase in the circulation of Sars-CoV-2 in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Increased mobility for pre-Christmas activities may be less in Eastern EuropeBut it seems more sensible to assume that the spatial distribution is due to the physical spread of the virus. It remains to “explain the” behavior “of Portugal and Belgium and the opposite side of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The situation – he concludes – may be clearer with the results of the retrospective studies to be carried out in the epidemiological-genetic field on the variant of the virus ”.
Get vaccinated quickly
«The one of the children is an opportunity But for this to happen, children would have to be more susceptible to this virus than other strains. And that I know of this right now not tested. Children tend to be less susceptible to infection than adults, ”reflects Galli. The hypothesis is not rejected by the teacher Roberto Cauda, Professor of Infectious Diseases on the campus of the Catholic University of Rome, who ventilates it in an interview with Messaggero. Second Fabrizio Pregliasco, a virologist at the University of Milan, if so, “this would favor the spread of the coronavirus: it is a bit like Sars-Cov-2 had gotten the turbo,” he told Adnkronos Salute. “The news of the mutation should encourage us and push us to rush to get vaccinatedThe expert added. The epidemiologist, on the other hand, is extremely cautious Massimo Ciccozzi among the first experts to study the genetic sequences of Sars-Cov-2 and identify some mutations of the coronavirus. “It is not yet proven that the variant is more contagious among young people. This virus does not look like age. Rather, if young people in Great Britain have been seen to be infected more easily, this means they are less carefulCiccozzi, head of the Medical Statistics and Epidemiology Unit of the Faculty of Medicine and Surgery of the Bio-Medical Campus of the University of Rome, explained to Adnkronos Salute. “Ultimately, if children do not wear the mask, gather without distancing themselves especially in closed places and do not take care of hygiene – Ciccozzi insists – they run the risk of being infected, regardless of the variant. Therefore, the invitation to young and old is to be on guard against the virus, and this until a significant part of the population is vaccinated.».
December 23, 2020 (change December 23, 2020 | 15:49)
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