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“Dramatic consequences”, “worrying scenario”, “situation out of control”. It was since last spring that scientists and politicians have not heard these expressions. And the words convey the feeling of the phase that Italy is going through: the coronavirus epidemic has struck again, faster than our ability to contain the contagion. In support of the verbal concerns, however, there are also numbers: the absolute ones tell us that the threshold of 15 thousand daily infections has been exceeded, those resulting from mathematical-statistical calculations indicate the alert thresholds that should not be exceeded.
The Rt index in Milan has exceeded 2
The same day the curfew begins in Lombardy, there is already talk of a tightening of restrictive measures. Milan, with an Rt index reached 2.08, is on the edge of a emergency shutdown. Another alarming fact to take into account is that the indicator, present in the last report prepared by ATS epidemiologists, refers to the trend of infections until October 10. Then the situation was already heavy, with 587 new cases every day, but had not acquired the criticality of the last days: on October 21, only in the metropolitan city of Milan, 1,858 contagion.
The Rt index, which numerically interprets the virus’s ability to spread, establishing the value of two It implies that each sick person, today, infects an average of two other people. According to the Cts and ISS guidelines, the alarm threshold that should not exceed the RT is the value 1.5. If the pressure on hospitals increased along with the indicator, the emergency shutdown national would be indispensable. If in Milan the value now exceeds two, at the national level, the TR calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 1.17. Why, therefore, is it not intervened with a surgical closure of the city of Milan, since there are all the numerical elements that justify closure?
The expert: “With an Rt of 2.35, the blockade is inevitable”
Generally, slightly more elastic parameters are applied to cities, raising the tolerance threshold of the Rt index. Dr. Antonio Russo, head of Epidemiology at the Health Protection Agency of the Lombard capital, believes that “inevitable and imminent UN emergency shutdown in Milan. The epidemiologist assumes a total stop for two weeks, followed by “any brief emergency shutdown accordion ”. But, according to the expert, the closure of the city is «inevitable with a Rt a 2.35“Milan is close to reaching this value.
“It is clear that this time we are more aware, the restrictions could last less time,” Russo adds. The truth is that it is necessary to act on social conscience. The cases in Milan tell us that the virus was reactivated this summer, with people touring Spain, Greece and Croatia and bringing the virus home. Today Milan is like Lodi was in March ».
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