Merkel closes the year with a flourish: agreement on the recovery fund

Among the 27 European leaders gathered in the Europa Building in Brussels, the debate on the recovery fund and the long-term EU budget lasts less than half an hour. Everything was decided yesterday by Angela Merkel, current president of the EU, and the governments of Hungary and Poland. The compromise, which effectively suspends the regulation that obliges European funds to respect the rule of law, lands on the table of the European Council and is approved without modifications. Thus the veto imposed by Viktor Orban and his Polish ally Mateusz Morawiecki is overcome. It unblocked 1.8 billion euros, the sum between the 2021-27 budget and the ‘Next Generation Eu’, a covid-19 anti-crisis bazooka. But for the disbursement of the money, it will be necessary to wait for the ratifications of the national parliaments: a process that is not exactly obvious, on which the EU can only give moral suasion. It depends on the Member States.

Suffice it to say that for ‘Sure’, the instrument launched in spring by the European Commission to support unemployment, it took no less than 4 months for the ratifications of the 27 national parliaments of the EU. At this rate, the recovery fund will not be operational in January, despite tonight’s agreement.

Special note: Holland, where the policy is voted in March, a country that has never well assimilated the idea of ​​accumulating a common European debt (even if it is on time) to send huge resources to the southern countries, including Italy with its 209 thousand millions of euros. In the Netherlands, the recovery fund remains a thorn in the election campaign of Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who obtained an increase in discounts on contributions to the EU budget, the reason for his yes tonight. But in the rule of law, the head of the Dutch government does not go well.

Rutte has always been the most persistent in demanding that the disbursement of funds be conditional on respect for the rule of law, an issue that is deeply felt in the Dutch public opinion as in all the Nordic countries, including Germany. At the summit, the Prime Minister of The Hague presents three requests.

First of all, he wants to be sure that Merkel’s engagement with the two eastern countries also goes well with the European Parliament, an institution that has fought a fierce battle for the rule of law, making it a condition for the rule of law. EU money. On this there is the approval of President David Sassoli, convinced that this is “the moment to make decisions, not to postpone them.”

But Rutte does not check the most crucial point. The agreement reached establishes that Hungary and Poland can benefit from European funds even if they violate the rule of law. In fact, conditionality, much invoked and obtained by the European Parliament, is “suspended” from tonight’s summit. In case of violations, appeals would be blocked only after a ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union, following an appeal that Budapest and Warsaw have already announced. Generally, the Court takes at least one year to render a judgment. It goes without saying that next year Orban and Morawiecki will be able to continue having EU money without having to account for respect for rights.

Here, Rutte asked that this mechanism be at least retroactive: if the sentence confirms the violations, the money paid must be returned. But the Dutch prime minister doesn’t understand it either. “It would be like neutralizing the suspension,” a European source tells us, in fact admitting that conditionality on the rule of law exists and does not exist: for now, it is suspended. There is not.

Rutte only succeeds in having, after tonight’s summit, the Legal Service of the European Council to rule on the legal soundness of the entire plant. Little victory. Orban and Morawiecki toast for having dodged the attack on their way of governing, with discrimination against minorities, non-governmental media, LGBTQ communities.

The leaders most interested in European funds rejoice. Starting with Italian premier Giuseppe Conte who, besieged in Italy by his own majority of Italia Viva y Pd, finds a sigh of relief in Brussels with the deal tonight. And also the Minister of Economy Roberto Gualtieri.

Final agreement on #NextGenerationEU. This means being able to unlock the enormous resources destined for Italy: 209 billion. The multi-year report was also approved. Now full time with the implementation phase – we just have to run! #EuCo

– Giuseppe Conte (@GiuseppeConteIT) December 10, 2020

Today two excellent news from Europe: the agreement #EUCO about him #NextGenerationEu and the European budget and the decision of the #Bce strengthen the emergency securities purchase program in the event of a pandemic. A strong, united and united Europe, an extraordinary and unique opportunity for Italy

– Roberto Gualtieri (@gualtierieurope) December 10, 2020

Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni celebrates another achievement by Chancellor Merkel.

I had no doubts. Finally, the vetoes on #NextGenerationEU have been overcome. A success for the EU Commission, Parliament and Council. The signature is Angela’s #Merkel

– Paolo Gentiloni (@PaoloGentiloni) December 10, 2020

Ursula von der Leyen also praises the result of the German presidency.

Europe advances!

Agreement #EUCO on the European budget and #NextGenerationEU.

€ 1.8 billion to support recovery and build a greener, more robust and digital Europe.

Congratulations to the German Presidency of the Council @ EU2020DE !

– Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) December 10, 2020

Merkel manages to successfully close the semester of the German presidency. It was not taken for granted. Europe is advancing in the definition of the economic instruments against the COVID crisis. But in the relationship with the Eastern countries there is no step forward. The ‘Merkelian’ compromise wins, perhaps the only way to hold the EU together. At what price?