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Just two years ago, the League had swept the European elections with 34%. Matteo Salvini, Deputy Prime Minister and powerful Minister of the Interior, seemed projected on a trajectory that did not set limits. Together with Giorgia Meloni, a young man and a woman, in a very united sovereign tandem destined to fill the void left in the center-right by the disintegration of Forza Italia and to transfer the center of gravity of the alliance to the orbit of the nationalist right. The end is well known: it begins with Papeete’s misstep, goes through the political and personal break with Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, ends with the failure of the “Emilia Romagna campaign”. It was January of this year: a geological era ago, before the global pandemic, of the hundreds of thousands of deaths in the world, of the discovery of “European solidarity” with the money from the Recovery Fund.
Yesterday’s vote says that even the start of sovereignty has failed: the (double) attempt to push the shoulder hurt those who carried it out and left firm (for the moment) the bulwark of the government and the legislature. Why is the center-right struggling to tune in to this political phase? Have fears changed, from immigration to coronavirus, and the consequent priorities of Italians? “Yes – responds Flavia Perina, journalist, former director of the“ Secolo d’Italia ”, in Parliament with Gianfranco Fini – Fears and priorities have radically changed. And the third argument is that Europe has changed. One of the epicenters of the sovereign narrative was the nature and existence of Europe itself: but Ursula von der Leyen’s is very different from the previous one, she has accepted the principle of solidarity, she invests to counteract the effects of the epidemic. She became a “friend”. Voters realized that the billions raised from Operation Next Generation Eu would not have materialized if Italy had been ruled by the right. This was a profound element of the sudden detachment of the voters from the sovereign world.
Does not having captured the strongest concerns of Italians – the economy, the collapse of GDP, the many productive sectors at stake, the fears of layoffs despite the subsidy policy – represent the gravestone of Salvini’s government ambitions? Or can you change the way you tell stories? “This vote, and before that of Emilia – replies Perina – closes the season of easy victories for the sovereign galaxy. As has always been the case after a terrifying crisis, the moderate electorate, which in Italy has always made a difference, finds it difficult to embark on an adventure. And that sovereign, great for those who believe in him, is without a doubt. Now Italians want protection, don’t jump into the dark ”. And so Conte, the one who managed the shutdown and tough negotiations with Brussels (and the “frugal” countries), is he the right man in the right place? “We will keep it until 2023. Meanwhile, the right is at a crossroads: either it breaks between moderates and sovereignists, and the latter settle for the Lepenian-style opposition – many votes, only the local government – or they change messages online. with new fears and priorities. The usual ones, war against immigrants, systematic protest against Europe, revolutionary perspective that demands full powers, no longer work. “
Perina, however, is also skeptical about the future of Giorgia Meloni, in this more isolated party: “The possibility of alternative leadership was closely linked to Puglia, where a moderate candidate like Raffaele Fitto depended on FdI’s ambitions to convert. in the new center of gravity of the alliance in positions more dialogue than salvinism. The defeat instead marks a setback “.
Sofia Ventura – political scientist, essayist, professor of Political Science at the University of Bologna – invites, meanwhile, to update the language: “We no longer speak of the center right, there is only the right. Forza Italia represents around 5% of a right that is close to 50% and has no voice ”. Ventura attributes the failure of the right to some extent to the reversal of fears and priorities in Italian society after the coronavirus: “The defeat in Emilia Romagna is earlier, the League has lost almost ten points to the Europeans but their votes went to Melons And nowhere else. The weight of the radical right, which today monopolizes the Italian right, is that. Then, Salvini could not move skillfully in the Covid phase: he seemed wandering and opportunistic, lacking in vision. The great question of the immigration has taken a back seat. He tried to link it to the arrival of the ships, but the operation failed him: it was propaganda below the threshold of credibility. In short, his workhorse has been undermined by other fears. “
Did the prospect of missing the European economic aid train also say no to the Month, the Recovery Fund? Ventura doubts it: “This is money that will help the government strengthen its consensus. We will see how they will be handled, I am afraid that the distribution policies of the Christian Democrats will prevail. But I don’t know how much in public perception this really is detrimental to the right wing. On the one hand, they are overly sophisticated reflections compared to common sentiment. On the other hand, Conte is also ambiguous on this point, while the Democratic Party wants the money but it will not make the government a crisis. So what was Salvini’s mistake? Just not understanding that the Italians have separated their strike from the “invasion of the ships”? “The leader of the Northern League has lost the stage of government, which was fundamental for him. It does not have a strong message, apart from the previous one on immigration. He has tried to appear more restrained and reasonable with glasses, but nobody believes him. Meanwhile, her “bitch” soul comes out, but then her strength is precisely to be anti-system. “After all, the same reasoning applies to Meloni:” She was better at building her image – observes Ventura – scares less. But knowing from where It comes, imagining it beyond sovereignty, in a “Christian-popular” style in the style of Angela Merkel, it is difficult. It is enough to observe her at rallies: she seems possessed, and she makes it cold, in a studied way, because it is her hard core So, she can win the vote of some moderate who sees her with curls on talk shows, but that thing remains there. I think that thinking beyond sovereignty is an illusion. “
Antonio Martino, historical worker of the force, deputy for six terms until the last, Berlusconian Minister of Foreign Affairs and then of Defense, offers a complementary reading: “The center-right in the Regionals has done quite well, and within it the party that The league has fared better. The comparison must be made between elections of the same type, therefore compared to 2015. Rather, I am discouraged by the referendum: I expected a victory of the demagogic yes, but not with these percentages. ” It is true, however, “that we cannot speak of an overwhelming League because some of its issues have lost relevance and relevance. The focus has shifted to something else: the remedies for the pandemic, which in itself is not as scary as it is. But the blockade will produce a recession in all Western countries – only the United States denies it – that will affect billions of people. ”Were Lega and FdI wrong in rejecting the F money? Recovery wave? “European money comes from our taxes, it is not an aid but a partial transfer. So, of course: those who give money are popular, those who take them are unpopular ”.
Does Salvini still have a bright political future ahead of him? “I do not consider him a great leader – Martino replies – He does not look like him: I do not see him as prime minister, he does not have his facial features. But even if I don’t like his face, sometimes he says things that make sense and we still have to give him credit. ” As for Meloni “with whom I faced in Parliament, he is not stupid at all, he did very well for the party, taking it beyond An’s percentages. But I cannot even imagine you as prime minister.” So who will lead the center right? “Thinking of that, my veins on my wrists tremble. It is a majority in the country, even more than the electoral figures because it includes many abstentions, but it is divided, with the historical leader Silvio Berlusconi now almost out of the game, without a program to unite them. It is not that the Democratic Party is better: with the split of Matteo Renzi it has lost its reason for being ”. Couldn’t Renzi be the next leader of the moderates? “He is a storyteller full of initiatives, but he lacks the sense of politics: getting along with friends and disagreeing with enemies. In the end he is a good country boy ”.
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