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Pesaro, January 3, 2021 – Increase theincidence of new cases and the effects of the latest closures will not be seen until January. Also calculating the start of school, what to expect in January 7th? A new grip, a ‘promotion’, a emergency shutdown widespread? This is what all of Italy is asking for, in the few days that separate it from the expiration of the so-called Christmas decree. We try to make a balance by helping us with the data from the Marche Region Health Service.
Landscape of a new grip is essentially linked to three parameters: lincidence of new cases, l ‘Rt and the hospital suffering. Let’s go in order.
Stay high the incidence of new cases of COVID-19 in Market. After the regressions registered at the end of November (the peak was reached on the 11th), the virus ran again in December. We are now in the order of 550/600 cases per day, with lower numbers recorded only due to the concomitant of holidays in which, obviously, diagnoses slow down.
As toRt (the number of people infected by an infected person in the unit of time) we are currently at 0.99. In the Region we already know, given the figures, that we will not stay long, but the forecast for this figure, calculated by the ministry, is that it will slightly exceed 1. In summary, it will not be the1.5 that triggers the Red zone and door to restrictions heavier. How much can be orange.
Coming to the hospital sector, the system in the Marches is still able to withstand the impact, also because the effects of the increase in cases of these weeks will be felt later: at this moment, in fact, there is greater suffering in non-intensive areas (whose alarm threshold is set at 40% and we are very close to 339 hospitalizations of which 37 in Pesaro) while he is in intensive therapy We are below the critical threshold (30%) with 65 occupied beds in the Marche region, of which 19 in the North Marche.
Within this regional framework, a separate discussion should be held for the province of Pesaro and Urbino. For about a month and a half, the incidence has been higher than in the other provinces. To the point that in the ranking of the municipalities most affected in Marche from December 1 to today, there are in first and second place Pesaro, with 814 cases, and Fano, with 677. The provinces of Ancona me Stop: after the massive screening in the two capitals, a positive rate of 1.5% of the subjects evaluated emerged, half from Pesaro and Urbino.
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