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Why Campania has been classified as a Covid yellow zone? In summary: it all depends on the data provided by the Region to the government, the Ministry of Health, the Higher Institute of Health. This is what emerged today in the live video on the analysis of the data from the Regional Monitoring of the Control Room with the president of the ISS Silvio Brusaferro, and the General Director of Prevention of the Ministry of Health, Gianni rezza, which illustrates the indicators that led to the November 4 ordinance.
An important fact arises: Campania, today the yellow zone is classified “moderate risk with a high chance of progressing to high risk in the next month»Along with other regions such as Lazio, Emilia-Romagna, Molise, Umbria.
The ISS file on Campania
The region-by-region monitoring indicators bring a forecast: within the next month, Campania will become the red zone or the orange zone at 50%. Here is the detailed analysis contained in the document published by the Ministry of Health:
“Cases on the rise in both flows. A strong delay in notification was detected in the cases of the ISS flow that could make the evaluation of these indicators less reliable. Rt above 1 during the 95% credibility interval. The number of active outbreaks and cases outside the transmission chains is increasing. Employment rates in intensive care (+ 4%) and in medical areas (+ 8%) are increasing. The probability of reaching critical thresholds in the ICU in the next few days is greater than 50%. The probability of progression could be underestimated because the number of hospitalized cases is incomplete forwarded (ie ed released) to the integrated surveillance system. “
What does that mean? That Campania could end up in the orange or red zone, when the new data on infections, incidence of positive swabs, saturation rate of hospitals (beds) and obviously the Rt indicator arrive, delivered to the control room. The updated data from the control room will arrive in the next 48 hours.
Brusaferro, president of the Higher Institute of Health explains:
There are a number of tools that help us understand how to deal with risk. The first, regulated by a decree of the Ministry of Health of April 30, establishes the control room, which belongs to the ministry, to collect and process a weekly risk assessment. And it gives us a good indication of how the virus travels. The flow of these indicators is generated in the regional health services and is sent to the ISS and the ministry., then the data is collected and then evaluated according to a risk dimension. This is done weekly – he added – in close collaboration between the regions, the ISS and the ministry. In the control room there are also 3 representatives from the regions, Lombardy, Umbria and Campania.
However, for now Campania has a moderate risk. Why?
Rezza explains, as general director of Prevention of the Ministry of Health, a prominent figure on the technical-scientific committee.
Campania, which we expected to find in the red band, is it yellow instead? It has many cases, but it has a much lower Rt than, for example, Lombardy or Calabria. So many infections, obviously the transmission has increased a lot in recent weeks, but now it has somewhat stabilized.. Therefore, there is a not particularly high Rt. Obviously, regional ordinances may have had some effect on transmission.
Rezza confirms that the risk areas in Campania are the metropolitan area of Naples along the northern route to Casertano, not the southern zone (Salernitano-Cilento).
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