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The establishment of the red zone in Calabria It is the result of cold numbers and projections, the same that, in recent weeks, have been transmitted from the Citadel to the Ministry of Health, which has limited itself simply to processing them.
The criteria had already been set on October 30 with a grid of indicators they have immediately nailed the region.
Bed occupancy index
For example, the decision to tighten restrictions is mainly due to the potential bed occupancy rate: in Calabria today the percentage of employment is still 5% for intensive care and 11% for beds in infectious disease wards.
But the projections prepared by the Ministry of Health indicate a potential trend of growth over the next 30 days. In Calabria in the space of a month higher percentages could be reached 50% while the threshold set by the Ministry of Health is 30% for intensive care and 40% for infectious disease wards.
Contagions and outbreaks
Probably, the new cases of infection confirmed by the Region are the most worrying but not attributable to known transmission chains (137), data that is integrated with the figures relating to new active shoots: up to 20 but with a strong upward trend. Specifically, there are 36 active outbreaks but 20 are those with transmission to two or more cases epidemiologically linked to each other and that, therefore, could generate an unexpected increase in the number of infections.
Potential risk
Although, in short, the progressive spread of the epidemic to the state produces a low impact on social services it is the probability of an escalation that has led the government to adopt decidedly more restrictive measures. However, for example, the risk of further transmission of the virus is high, which cannot be managed effectively with local measures, such as the adoption of red zones. A potentially out of control situation that could have plummeted in 30 days.
The Ministry of Health
A circumstance also confirmed by the director of the Prevention sector of the Ministry of Health, Gianni rezza: «The criticality for Calabria arises from Rt raised to 1.84, this means that even if at this time there is not a particularly high number of cases, Rt leads us to think that there is an increase in transmission and therefore could have criticality in the number of cases in the near future. Also, there could be an intensive care occupancy of more than 50%. Now there is no excess of cases but there is a trend towards criticality, but within 2 weeks the situation may return».
