London now fears a no-deal Brexit



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As Boris Johnson’s government struggles to reduce rising infections in the country and cushion the economic consequences of the pandemic, there is a crisis looming that could hit Parse a much harder blow: the risk of the No Deal in the Brexit Negotiations. . A departure from the European Union without an agreement could have catastrophic consequences for the country, much more serious than the coronavirus, to which would be added a sharp slowdown in merchandise trade through border controls, with the prospect of finding lines of seven thousand trucks in waiting to board at the port of Dover.

A study commissioned by the UK anti-Brexiteer think tank in a changing Europe and carried out in collaboration with some researchers from the London School of Economics (LSE), affirms that the price to pay for a possible No Deal would be destined to reach a lower price. 8% of GDP in the Kingdom, equivalent to 160 billion pounds or 2,400 pounds per capita. Figures even higher than the Bank of England’s forecasts regarding the impact on the country of the closing of spring and other restrictions related to the Covid-19 pandemic that stop at less than 1.7% of GDP in 2022, after an alleged rebound. partial positive.

The analysis was released as talks on future post-Brexit trade relations in the British capital resume between teams led by Chief Negotiators Michel Barnier and Lord David Frost – talks that have stalled for some time at several crucial points and now are threatened by the furious reaction ‘EU to the bill outlined by the government of Boris Johnson that demands from the United Kingdom a supposed right to question part of the divorce agreements already reached in the Withdrawal Agreement, in particular on the delicate customs situation from Northern Ireland.

As if that were not enough, The Guardian revealed yesterday that government forecasts could have 7,000 trucks blocked in Dover waiting to enter France in January, with delays of two days in the regular transit of goods from the United Kingdom to the United Kingdom. territory of the European Union, caused by the controls that will be necessary again. The catastrophic scenario, later confirmed to the municipalities by the undersecretary of government, Michael Gove, responsible for the preparations for the exit, could take place regardless of the outcome of the ongoing negotiations for the new trade agreement between London and Brussels. According to Gove’s forecasts, the main drawbacks would stem from the lack of preparation of British exporters for the controls that will take effect on January 1 at the borders with the EU.

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Downing Street predicts that between 40 and 70 percent of trucks traveling to the EU will not be ready to pass the new border controls. For trucks that will have to cross the English Channel by boarding the ferries at Dover or traveling by train through the Eurotunnel, estimates range from 30 to 50 percent. In addition, the funnel that would be created in French ports could cause the flow of goods through the Canal to collapse to 80 percent of normal capacity. That is why Gove has asked the trade associations to “act now and prepare for the new bureaucratic procedures” that they will have to deal with from next year. Drivers, British or foreign, traveling from, for example, depots in the Midlands, will need to obtain a permit before arriving in Kent, the Dover Harbor region, if they intend to board a Eurotunnel ferry or train.

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