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The announcement of the President of the Lombardy Region Attilio Fontana already arrived yesterday, December 9 on Facebook: from Sunday, December 13, Lombardy will be in the yellow zone. A decision made on the basis of a trend such as “continues to decline.” The Lombard situation, however, runs the risk of becoming a coincidence, because this improvement does not seem so complete to physicist Roberto Battiston, former president of the Italian space agency. The Rt index, one of the basic criteria for monitoring the trend of Covid-19 infections, has stopped falling according to Battiston in Corriere della Sera, continuing to rotate around the 0.8. A number that fortunately remains under the1 but that in fact represents a stasis on which, according to the professor, it is necessary to reflect.
Analysis of the curve over time
The professor proceeds with an analysis of the RT data from the beginning of the second wave to the present. According to Battiston, the rapid rise in the index in early October would not be attributable so much to vacationers, as confirmed in the last hours by the infectious specialist Bassetti himself, but to the insufficiently planned restart of all daily activities, transport, offices, schools. This is due to the simple fact that, as the physicist explains on his data analysis site, the number of infected represents the effect of what happens about ten days before the detection of the curve.
According to this criterion, exactly the same would have happened, advancing in time, also for the decline of the index, around 2. 3 October. In all Italian regions, RT suddenly began to fall, a change, also in this case, due to the facts of 10 days before the restrictive measures of the Dpcm of October 13. Obligation to wear a mask outdoors, there is no nightlife outside the venue after 9pm, there are no parties inside.
Then came the subdivision of Italy into multiple colors and risk areas. A measure that, as analyzed by the physicist, would not have meant greater benefits in the Rt index, on the contrary. In the case of Lombardy there would have been a real arrest of the descent of the Route. twenty days after the introduction of the new restrictive measures, which immediately saw the Region classified in the red zone, from 27 Therefore, in November it is possible to find an important stop in the fall of the Rt index, currently stopped between 0.8 cast 0.7.
The cause
The precise causes that led to the halt of an admittedly positive decline are still unclear. The Battiston hypothesis would be precisely in a counterproductive effect of restrictive measures in various colors. Forcing the inhabitants of high-density areas to stay within the limits of their municipalities may, according to the professor, have favored meetings and contacts, and consequently infections. A hypothesis not confirmed for now but that could explain a data, which to date is at least anomalous.
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