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Tomorrow, ISS monitoring day and therefore the color map of the regions is bound to change. Lazio will likely be assigned the orange zone, the same classification as Tuscany, while Lombardy and Piedmont will almost certainly remain in the red zone. Veneto is still in the balance, but is aiming for orange. This is what could emerge from the weekly report of the control room from the data of the Isulti Superiore di Sanità report, which will become official tomorrow.
Covid Italia, bulletin March 25, 2021: 23,696 new cases and 460 deaths. The positive rate rises to 6.8%
Lazio, if it becomes the orange zone as of March 29, all schools open: in papa only secondary schools. Periodic testing for infections
The newsletters already tell us something COVID-19 regional releases released today.
The Lombardy continues to register the highest number of new positive cases (5,046) and positivity rate result up to 8.4% (yesterday 7.1%). Although the pressure on hospital wards has eased today (there are no new beds occupied in intensive care and those occupied in other wards have also fallen), admissions remain, inexorably, above the critical threshold: a powerful alarm signal that does not allows a descent to the orange zone for Lombardy. Intensive care units are occupied by 60% (the threshold is 30%) and those hospitalized in a non-critical area are 53% (they must be able to be at least 40% to have a situation under control). Here’s the eloquent graph:
To remember: the threshold of 30% for intensive care and 40% for non-critical areas is identified by the Minister of Health.
Even the Piedmont it will stay in the red zone in all likelihood. The RT fell within a week, but not below zero. It dropped from 1.33 to 1.17 and despite being below 1.25, therefore, from the orange zone, the incidence of infections above 250 blocks the region in the red zone. The percentage of positive swabs also increased from 13.1% to 14.2%. Increase the number of active and new shoots. The occupancy rate of intensive care beds increased from 48% to 55% and the occupancy of beds in the medical area from 54% to 61%.
The Aosta Valley It already has red zone numbers and it won’t even wait for Monday’s ordinance: it will anticipate the measures already this weekend. There is an index Rt jumped to 1.75 (which means almost two infected for every infected) and 291 positives for every 100,000 inhabitants (the maximum threshold before automatic red is 250). Therefore: prohibition of traveling between municipalities, with the exception of trips destined to reach services that can continue their activity, such as personal care services. Without restrictive measures with respect to the school: the institutions that organize their activities also on Saturdays may do so in presence. To give the news a note from the Region.
The Veneto It is in the balance, we said. The index RT is retreating, falling a few tenths below 1.25, Luca Zaia said today, anticipating regional estimates; could be around 1.22, while the incidence remains around 250 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, parameter that activates the red zone. “We are on the edge of the orange zone,” explained the governor. The passage in orange “is not impossible, but we have to see what the count will be for last week. We did it, but sometimes the calculators don’t give the same result. ” This is the encouraging situation for hospitalizations in the Covid zone and in the non-critical zone. To date, both figures are below the critical threshold.
Lazio and Tuscany in the orange zone
The Lazio should go in the orange zone: the Rt index has fallen below 1 e the incidence of cases is 205 per 100,000 inhabitants. Therefore, we can expect a relaxation of the measures, despite the fact that infections are increasing: today there are 2,055 new positives (+346 compared to yesterday) and 33 deaths (+3). The cases in the city of Rome are in 901 (the day before they were 700). “Cases, deaths, hospitalizations and intensive care are increasing”, admitted the regional health advisor Alessio D’Amato, but also explained that “the value of Rt is 0.99 with a reduction in the number of outbreaks, occupation of the beds just above the threshold. ” The transition to the orange zone will also reopen schools starting Monday.
The Tuscany it will not enter the red zone, says President Eugenio Giani. According to the data, there is no reason. Tuscany in the red zone? «I would say no: we are a 248 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and we have a Rt at 1.09-1.10, then we are in the orange zone ». This was stated by Eugenio Giani, president of the Tuscany Region, speaking on Radio24.
Lazio, if it becomes the orange zone as of March 29, all schools open: in papa only secondary schools. Periodic testing for infections
The Gimbe Foundation analysis
In week 17-23 March there was “a slight decrease in new cases (-4.8%)”. The latest independent monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation. «In the middle of the third wave – says Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation – we can glimpse the first signs of improvement: after four consecutive weeks the trend of new weekly cases is reversed and the percentage of increase in new cases is reduced. “However, the national figure suffers from very heterogeneous regional situations – warns the report – in fact, in 10 Regions the percentage increase in new cases continues to grow and in 14 Regions the basin of currently positive cases is expanding.
Lazio red zone: covid cases, incidence and hospital admissions: the new map of the region
Report @GIMBE March 17-23: first signs of improvement with an initial reduction in infections but the hospital situation is still poor in more than half of the Regions. The delay in the vaccination campaign is considerable: only 1 in 80 out of 5 is vaccinated with two doses. Https://t.co/HzXegY3W6s
– Renata Gili (@renata_gili) March 25, 2021
“For most of the Regions – Cartabellotta explains – the clear correlation between the percentage variation of new cases and the color of the Regions 3 weeks ago is evident.” Of course, in the majority of those who were in the red or orange zone or who, in any case, had implemented strict specific restrictions, «the percentage change in new cases is decreasing: Abruzzo, Basilicata, Campania, Emilia-Romagna, Lombardy, Marche, Molise, in the autonomous provinces of Bolzano and Trento, Umbria – underlines the report – On the contrary, the same figure is increasing in Calabria, Lazio, Liguria, Puglia, Sardinia, Sicily, Valle d’Aosta and Veneto, which 3 weeks ago were in the yellow or white zone. The situation in Friuli Venezia Giulia, Piedmont and Tuscany is more difficult to interpret, which shows that other factors (eg intensity of tests, respect for individual measurements) influence the infection curve ”.
“Despite the slight decrease in the contagion curve, the situation on the hospital side worsens, even because the third wave started from a very high plateau of occupied beds. In fact, at the national level, both the alert thresholds for the occupation of beds by Covid patients in the medical area (more than 40%) and in intensive care (more than 30%) are exceeded: respectively 43% and 39%.
We write about this here: Covid, comprehensive intensive care in half of Italy, 12 regions above the 30% threshold: from Lombardy to Umbria
Even surpassed «the alarm threshold in 10 and 12 Regions respectively for the medical area and for intensive care ”. This was stated by Renata Gili, Head of Research on Health Services at the Gimbe Foundation, commenting on the Gimbe report from week 17 to 23 March. In 5 Regions they have a saturation equal to or greater than 40% (Umbria, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Molise, Abruzzo, Tuscany) and in 5 it is greater than or equal to 50% (Marche, Lombardy, PA Trento, Piedmont, Emilia-Romagna). “On this front – explains Marco Mosti, operational director of the Gimbe Foundation – the slowdown in new daily intensive care admissions is encouraging: the 7-day moving average curve after 4 weeks of increase has flattened.”
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