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On Wednesday the 11th the transition to the orange zone is triggered, but in the monitoring of the Higher Institute of Health the parameters of Tuscany are alarming both in terms of tracking and in terms of intensive care. And waiting for the effects of the restrictions to run their course, the data update could plunge our region into the highest alert range.
FLORENCE. Unable to react to the alerts fired by the health system, with an epidemic and contact tracing still out of control, a “transmission” of the virus so widespread that it would be “unmanageable” even if local red zones were activated. One step beyond the alert threshold for intensive care employment, we are on a curve full of anomalies, such as the jump recorded after October 26 and 27, when “cases suddenly tripled.” The tables and evaluations of the follow-up prepared by the control room and the Higher Institute of Health not only tell in detail why Tuscany ended up in the orange band in the geometric progression with which the Ministry of Health has recolored Italy from new restrictions, but those numbers also tell us that we are a stone’s throw from red. And that could only be a matter of days.
The restrictions in place as of tomorrow are unlikely to have a decisive effect on the curve for the next update, and in fact it is precisely the monitoring mechanism with which the ministry assigns the colors that is always one week behind the reality. This we give you an account of, for example, photographs of the epidemic in Tuscany between October 26 and November 1, the next one will stop on Sunday the 8th. So, long before the transition tomorrow. It could only be made public between Friday and Sunday and impose new hardships on us, hallucinate us in an almost total confinement.
But what pushed Tuscany towards orange and especially what indicators have not yet plunged it into the abyss of the close? It was the RT that took us from scenario 2 (yellow) to scenario 3 (orange), but paradoxically it is precisely the contagion rate (how many people infects each positive on average) that saves us. In one week it went from 1.19 to 1.4, but it has not yet crossed the 1.5 mark, which would have caused us to collapse on stage 4.
Here the good news ends. There are many parameters, among the 21 analyzed, that convinced the ISS to already include the region among the high-risk ones. In the last week we registered one of the highest incidences of infection in the population (452 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants), we are the fourth region in terms of number of active outbreaks after Veneto, Lombardy and Piedmont (1,779, were 1,097 the previous week), we registered ”. a high probability “that the” widespread transmission “of the virus is” not effectively manageable with local measures (red zones) “.
In short, in the debate between the mayors who ask Eugenio Giani to start the closure and he who invites them to do it alone with the ordinances, the follow-up agrees with the first citizen. Not only. It is also in the hospital network that one of the most worrying fissures is forming. We are the only region, along with Piedmont and Luguria, that counts up to three warnings about the “resilience of local health services”. Translated: Local health authorities and hospitals do not react to alarms. Why? The percentage of positives in those tested has gone from 12.9 to 22.3% (although in recent days it has even exceeded 30%), and only 39.9% of those infected are the Prevention Departments capable of performing a contact tracing survey. Translated: the tracking is still out of control. So much so that we have registered 11,732 infections not associated with known transmission chains. Only Lombardy has more than us (29,855, the others have less than 5,000).
But above all, although until now the impact of hospitalizations has been absorbed by the system, for the document the probability that an unmanageable escalation will occur within 30 days leading to the collapse of hospitals is greater than 50%. According to the Tuscany report, 29% of the places that can be activated in intensive care are full, a mustache of the risk threshold of 30%. Actually, for Agenas, the national health agency of the regions that monitors in real time, we are already at 45%. Which enclaves are most at risk? On the cards, the province of Florence is the one that has exceeded 2000 weekly cases, then those of Arezzo, Pisa, Lucca and Pistoia, but the weekly incidence of the infection is now everywhere.
