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Targeted local closures in areas where the virus runs the most seem increasingly likely, hoping to see the first effects of the last Dpcm restrictions in a few days.
by Andrea Gagliardi
Targeted local closures in the areas where the virus runs the most seem increasingly likely, waiting to see the first effects of the last Dpcm restrictions.
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To understand what awaits us in the coming weeks, it is necessary to take up the study by experts from the Higher Institute of Health and the Scientific Technical Committee on the possible scenarios for the evolution of the virus after the first wave and the relatively calm summer. A work whose main objective was to offer a series of indications to plan the necessary interventions.
The scenarios of the Higher Institute of Health
In the “high or very high” risk scenario, with Rt between 1.25 and 1.5 in which we find ourselves, the recommended interventions to contain the contagion curve are very clear: red areas with temporary blocking (2-3 weeks) and reopening only with reduction of TR, interruption of social activities with a higher risk of collection, assessing the interruption of some productive activities with particular risk situations, possible restriction of interregional and intraregional mobility. However, if the situation worsens (with a national Rt above 1.5), scenario 3 is entered, which indicates a “situation of sustained and generalized transmissibility with risks of maintaining the health system”. In this case, a generalized confinement can be reached with an extension and duration to be defined with respect to the epidemiological scenario.
Ask for specific local closings
That is why selective local closures in areas where the virus runs the most seem increasingly likely, hoping to see in a few days the first effects of the restrictions of the latest Prime Minister’s Decree (Dpcm). It is no coincidence that the consultant of the Ministry of Health Walter Ricciardi affirmed that in areas with a very high circulation of Covid, such as Milan and Naples, a confinement would be needed because “you can also get infected by going to the bar.” The mini closures, which affect individual areas, are “an option to consider, almost automatic,” says Gianni Rezza, general director of Prevention of ISS. And speaking of local confinements, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte himself declares: “We have made a dpcm that makes them possible.”
The division of the population into islands is also studied
The hypothesis on which we are working is, therefore, that of “surgical closures to identify and neutralize asymptomatic patients, and the super speakers among them” based on the example of Codogno and Vo ‘Euganeo. Without excluding that of dividing the population into “islands”. A strategy, to be adopted in areas where data indicate spread of infection above the national average, based on extensive population testing. In fact, from mathematical models and simulations, the indication that dividing a large population into subpopulations that cannot be found can help to better contain the spread of the virus.
