[ad_1]
Genoa. Last week the Higher Institute of Health put us, together with the Aosta Valley, at the top of the Italian regions in incidence of coronavirus with 142 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, and therefore among the nine regions where the value of 75 cases / 100 thousand inhabitants is exceeded, which represents the national average.
“Exponential growth”. Meanwhile, pending Thursday’s report, things got worse, and not a little. During the last covid press point, Alisa’s prevention manager stated in unequivocal terms that in recent days it has been observed: “A loss of linearity in the increase in cases and pressure on hospital facilities, the increase is no longer progressive but is beginning to have an exponential aspect – said Filippo Ansaldi – certainly in the province of Genoa, but also in the rest of the provinces we have observed an exceeding of the service threshold ”. And it is this trend that justifies the measures (insufficient for a large part of the population, excessive for another large part of the population) taken with the latest local ordinances.
Black shirt. Yesterday, and it is not the first time that it happens, Liguria was the region where the highest percentage of positives in swabs performed was clearly registered: 15% (result of 907 new cases out of 6062 swabs, 1.5 million inhabitants). In Piedmont, the percentage value is 10.7 (1,396 new cases out of 13018 swabs, 4.3 million inhabitants), in Lombardy 9.3% (2,023 new cases out of 21,726 swabs, population 10.6 million inhabitants). The most disadvantaged region, but with three percentage points, is the Campania (5.8 million inhabitants): yesterday 1312 new cases were registered with 10,205 swabs and the value of the positive ratio for swabs is 12.8%.
Genoa, the eye of the storm. Relying solely on the numbers, especially regionally and not locally, can be a bit revealing. In Liguria it is known that at this time the trend is strongly influenced by the Genoese situation: yesterday of 907 new cases 762 occurred in Genoa. Therefore, it would be more interesting to know what is the incidence in Genoa or the percentage of positive swabs in Genoa. One of the critical points of Alisa’s data communication is that she has never clarified the division of the swabs for asl.. Based on a repeated statement by Governor Giovanni Toti who during some press points stated that swabs are made in half by ASL 3, it could be established that the percentage of positive swabs on the total of those carried out is, in the Ligurian capital, around 25%. One fact, which if confirmed, would be like a stone: one in four people, if they take a swab, is positive.
“Sniper” swabs?. too this equationHowever, risks that do not correspond to reality. For two reasons, the first is that in Genoa there are areas where the virus circulates up to 10 times more than in other areas where it practically does not exist, the second is that there are regions and cities where swabs are performed mainly as generalized screening, others – as in our case – where we are proceeding to trace contacts of the established case. In fact, the contact of a case is more likely to be positive (this trend is changing, and with the new mobile clinics the possibility of follow-up not linked to contacts of confirmed cases will increase more and more).
So what would it take to better understand what is happening around us? (And between us?). Non-aggregated data about Alisa’s infections and the local health authorities, the possibility of observing – as was possible until a month ago – epidemiological studies divided by “limit” or by neighborhoods. Data that, not only journalists but more and more citizens (especially those located in the more restricted neighborhoods) they would like to be able to consult in a simple and transparent way. In addition, in fact, the division of tampons by local health authorities and also the division between “first buffers”, “second buffers” and buffers to certify healing. (Since the system may change soon due to the increasing use of rapid tests.)
The situation in hospitals and intensive care: how are we? Still based on the numbers, there is at least one positive fact, at least in relation to other national situations: although under pressure Hospitals are far from running out of beds, especially in intensive care: today 32 in total in Liguria while in Lombardy there are 123, almost clogged, and it may soon be necessary to reopen the hospital in the Expo area, in Campania there are 91, in Veneto 51. Comparisons that leave the time they find, given the differences in the number of population and hospital facilities, but sufficient to measure the situation at the national level. However, as Angelo Gratarola, director of the Diar emergencies-urgencies and in Alisa’s working group for the pandemic situation, also pointed out yesterday, the filling of the low and medium intensity beds must be monitored, which hold only thanks to a large turnover, but even more maintenance of first aid, in increasing difficulty in the last days.
[ad_2]