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The political situation at the end of 2020 seems anything but calm. Relations within the majority are turbulent, rumors of reorganization, the government crisis, and the possibility of an early end of the legislature with new elections are pursued. One wonders which parliament It could come from an election today, taking into account the downsizing of MPs and voting patterns at the end of 2020.
The simulation of the new Parliament was carried out with the data obtained based on 33,300 interviews conducted by Ipsos between September 10 and December 16, 2020, weighted by aligning them with the most recent voting trends. The analysis based on the electoral law in force, conventionally called Rosatellum. The formation of the majority colleges (147 in the Chamber and 74 in the Senate) was carried out by merging the neighboring colleges. The division of the constituencies won by each coalition among the different parties of the coalition was made assuming a subdivision of the candidates that takes into account both the national electoral weight of each party of the coalition and the electoral weight relative to each geographic area to which which the constituency belongs to. In addition, the simulation in the seats obtainable in the proportional part was carried out on the basis of the rules established by the current law: therefore, considering the voting intentions registered in December, Action, Italia viva and Sinistra italiano / Leu would participate in the distribution of the assigned seats with proportional method in the House, but not in the Senate. Finally, the allocation of seats abroad takes into account what happened in previous elections and the voting trends observed in Italy.
The simulation is based on two political supply hypothesesa: the first scenario involves the tripartite division between center-right (Lega, Fratelli d’Italia, Forza Italia and center-right minor lists), center-left (Pd, Si / Leu, Iv, Action and center-left minor lists) and Movimiento 5 Estrellas ; the second considers the contrast between the center-right and a coalition between the four forces that support the Conte 2 government. Both hypothesized scenarios attribute the center-right majority: in the first hypothesis with 222 seats in the Chamber (of which 106 assigned to the League) against an estimated 123 for the center-left (of which 84 go to the Democratic Party) and 51 to the M5S. As in the Senate, the center-right would prevail with 115 seats, against 58 for the center-left and 23 for the 5-star. In the second hypothesis, the advantage is more limited (212 seats in the House and 109 in the Senate).
So the games are closed? Not really, for at least two reasons: first in the single-member electoral districts the balance of power between coalitions presents wide margins of uncertainty, just think that in the first scenario the disputable electoral districts (in which the distance between the first two positions is less than 5%) are 55 out of 147 and in the second 33. In the second place, the simulation takes into account the most recent voting orientations, therefore, with the unknown of the political offer and possible alliances, and in the absence of an electoral campaign that could be decisive for change consensus. Therefore, there are many unknowns, starting with the evolution of the health emergency and the economic situation. And, we repeat once again, the polls are not an oracle, they represent a snapshot of the current situation, not the prediction of the final result.
December 31, 2020 (change December 31, 2020 | 10:29 am)
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