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The color system should be reviewed and technicians from the Higher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health are already working. Meanwhile, today the fate of Lazio will be decided which, like other regions, is one step away from the orange band, although the numbers still save it. The diffusion of the variants opens the way to other local red zones in the rest of the country, as has already happened in Pescara, Chieti, Perugia and, although less rigorously, in Ancona. Let’s go in order. Created to prevent contagion without resorting to widespread blocking, the locking mechanism and all 21 indicators had already received an adjustment: the RT limit had been lowered, activating a red band and an orange band. But the extension of the English variant makes this tool inadequate, because now we are chasing a car that runs at a much higher speed, at least 30-40 percent.
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Speed
Intervening with the criteria of the calibrated system in the original version of Sars-CoV-2 does not work, it is like chasing a Ferrari with an old Panda GNC. The Ministry of Health has requested the Higher Institute of Health to carry out a new survey to update the data on the diffusion of variants (an initial study revealed that today 17.8 percent of positive cases are B.1.1.7, i.e. English). Experts are convinced that in a month the mutation that began in Great Britain will be the dominant one in Italy too, new speed limits are needed. Possible downward adjustment of the values that trigger the restrictions (red band and orange band), but also local closures, as has been happening in recent weeks in Pescara, Chieti, Perugia and in four cities in Lombardy. Today the control room (Ministry of Health and Higher Institute of Health) will define the new evaluations based, however, on the current parameters. What should you expect First, the Rt, the transmission index, at the national level will be around 1, so the limit is considered critical. Some regions are at risk of color change with more restrictions. Let’s start with the cases of Abruzzo and Umbria, the territories in central Italy that are slowing down the explosion of variants. With the RT close to 1.25, there is the possibility of going into the red band, although yesterday the president of Abruzzo, Marco Marsilio, explained that the epidemiological data do not justify the stricter closures in the entire region. “The RT went down from 1.22 to 1.17”.
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The Abruzzo case
The provinces of Chieti and Pescara are already a red zone, precisely because of the multiplication of cases of the English variant, as in Umbria the same measure spread in the province of Perugia, where the Brazilian mutation is also widespread. Indeed, according to the Umbria Region “the variants of the coronavirus circulate widely throughout the country and in 77 samples 41 have a genetic profile identifiable with the Brazilian variant and 22 with the English variant”. For other regions one step away from orange, a paradoxical situation has arisen: the different councilors or presidents have indicated that the numbers are sufficient to avoid restrictions. It occurs for example in Lazio, where the Councilor for Health, Alessio D’Amato, explained: “From the monitoring data, Lazio should remain in the yellow zone with an Rt value of 0.95, a reduction in the number of new outbreaks and the occupancy rate of the total beds in the intensive care area and the medical area, both below alert thresholds. ” The same speeches are heard in the other regions considered in the balance such as Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Emilia-Romagna, Piedmont, Lombardy and Marche, all at risk of going orange. Raffaele Donini, Health Minister of Emilia-Romagna: “We are waiting to understand the decisions of the Government, but I wonder if this division into colored bands of the Italian regions is the correct strategy. An overview of our country would be more useful. ‘ The situation in Lombardy is similar. Governor Attilio Fontana: “I think we can stay in yellow.”
Covid Lazio, today’s newsletter February 18: more than a thousand cases (534 in Rome) and 41 deaths
Ready for control room
The control room that will meet today will probably rigorously apply the color system, because the advancement of the variants suggests an additional measure of prudence, as already written in last week’s report. Yesterday’s data confirms the stagnation of the figures: 13,762 new cases (much less than the 15,146 reported on Thursday of the previous week). The number of occupied places also continues to decline until 20,008, 309 less than the previous day. “If we did not know that the English variant is growing dramatically, it would be an acceptable figure,” explains an expert. Even yesterday, however, 347 Covid deaths were added, the total is now 94,887. It can be expected that the 100,000 mark will be surpassed in mid-March.
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Last update: 11.30pm
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