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The fall in gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2020 (- 12.8%) confirms that Italy plunged into the worst recession of the postwar period (two consecutive quarters of decline, the first recorded by – 5.3%). But the worst should have happened. The – 12.8% actually measures the performance of the economy in the period in which the blockade decreed by the government has halted many productive activities and blocked mobility. Now we can only go up. And the first signs are already there, in Italy and in the other countries hard hit by the pandemic. Our country, with its – 12.8% (which is worsening, but only slightly from the initial estimate of – 12.4% published by Istat on July 31), fared worse than Germany (- 9.7%), but better than France (-13.8%), Spain (-18.5%) and the United Kingdom (-20.4%). In addition, the signals coming from Germany in particular (- 9.7% better than the initial forecast of – 10.1% and the latest data indicates an improvement in the climate of trust among companies) also bodes well for Italy. , strongly linked to the German economy. It will take a rebound in the second half of the year, to avoid that the fall of the Italian GDP in 2020 is in the double digits and instead stops between the 8% estimated for now by the government (which will increase with the update note to Def, at the end of September) and 10%, in fact. Suffice it to say that the same statistical institute explains that the variation acquired in GDP, that is, the one that would occur in 2020 if growth were zero in the third and fourth quarters, equal to – 14.7%.
Consumer emergency
Much, of course, will depend on the evolution of the coronavirus, which hopefully will not force new blocks of economic activities, but, in addition to the international situation (our exports plummeted in the second quarter by 26.4%), it will also be decisive . that the government will give to the productive system, through public investments and tax incentives for private companies. Particular attention should be paid to industrial appliances and demand support. In fact, the data show that the blockade in particular has doubled the added value of the industry, which decreased in the April-June period, by 20.2%. And that, as Istat writes, the fall in GDP was driven mainly by domestic demand, with a particularly negative contribution from private consumption. While waiting for the next generation European funds from the EU, the impulse will therefore have to come from the unblocking of the works already financed (test bed of the decree of the Simplification Law), from a tax reform that encourages consumption ( Germany, for example, has been reduced by three VAT points until the end of the year, committing 20 billion to this in a way that is probably more effective than many bonuses) and by measures that block and, if possible, relaunch employment.
I risk a million fewer employees
In fact, the big question before us is that of work. The Bank of Italy and the same government in the April Def estimate a decrease in employment in 2020 of around one million units compared to 2019. Istat reports that in the second quarter full-time work units fell by 11 , 8% compared to the first quarter, and this despite the layoffs and the blocking of layoffs. By now, the majority of young people and women on fixed-term contracts have lost their jobs. Added to this is a collapse in hiring, which again limits opportunities for young people to enter work. And the foreseeable further reduction of sectors such as restaurants and tourist services, with the progressive expulsion of tens of thousands of workers, often difficult to relocate. The reductions in hiring will not be enough, nor will the labor reform. We need to revive the economy and increase confidence in the future. In companies and homes.
