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In the second quarter of 2020, GDP, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, decreased by 12.8% compared to the previous quarter and by 17.7% compared to the second quarter of 2019. The preliminary estimate of the cyclical variation of the GDP circulated on July 31, 2020 was -12.4% while the trend was -17.3%.
Italian GDP had never registered such a significant decline since 1995. Istat underlines this, also specifying that the acquired variation for 2020 is equal to -14.7%. The complete estimate of the quarterly income statements – writes Istat – confirms the exceptional magnitude of the fall in GDP in the second quarter due to the economic effects of the health emergency and the containment measures adopted, with decreases of 12.8% in economic terms. and 17.7% in terms of trend, never recorded since 1995.
Istat highlights the “exceptional scope of the fall in GDP in the second quarter due to the economic effects of the health emergency and the containment measures adopted.” However, it should be noted that the second quarter of 2020 had one less business day than both the previous quarter and the second quarter of 2019.
The fall in GDP, Istat explains, was driven mainly by domestic demand, with a particularly negative contribution from private consumption and significant negative contributions from investments and inventory changes. External demand also contributed negatively, due to the more decisive reduction in exports than imports.
In particular, compared to the previous quarter, all the main aggregates of domestic demand decreased, with decreases of 8.7% for domestic final consumption and 14.9% for gross fixed investments. Imports and exports decreased by 20.5% and 26.4% respectively.
The net national demand for inventories contributed -9.5 percentage points to the GDP contraction, with -6.7 points in the consumption of households and private ISP social institutions, -2.6 points in gross fixed investment and – 0, 2 spending points of the Public Administration (AP). The change in inventories and net external demand also contributed negatively to the change in GDP, respectively, by -0.9 and -2.4 percentage points.
Negative economic trends were registered for value added in all the main productive sectors, with a fall in agriculture, industry and services by 3.7%, 20.2% and 11% respectively. Regarding household spending, for its part, it registered a decrease in economic terms of 12.4%. In particular, durable goods purchases decreased by 21.4%, non-durable goods by 4.4%, services by 15.8% and semi-durable goods by 15.1%.
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