“Italy needs a new anti-Covid plan”

Infections continue to decline, as do hospitalizations and intensive care. At the same time, the containment measures put in place by the Giallorossi government to lower the epidemiological curve are about to exhaust their effects. Simply put, this is the core of the latest independent monitoring of the pandemic. COVID-19 carried out by the Gimbe Foundation. The week 16-22 December, compared to the previous one, showed a slight decrease in new cases (106,794 compared to 113,182), compared to a substantial stability of the cases tested (465,534 compared to 462,645) and a reduction in the cases ratio positive / proven (22.9% vs 24.5%).

Going into detail, the currently positive cases decreased by 9.2% (605,955 versus 667,303) and, in the hospital setting, hospitalizations with symptoms (24,948 versus 27,342) and intensive care (2,687 versus 3,003) decreased; I also fell deceased (3,985 vs. 4,617). Although these figures may seem positive, in reality the situation is not the best. “THE data This week – stated Nino Cartabellotta, president of the Gimbe Foundation – confirm that the slowdown in contagion is less and less evident, as documented by the stabilization of positive / tested cases and the positive / total swab ratios, due to the modest reduction in the percentage increase in total cases (5.7% vs 6.4%) and the slight decrease in new weekly cases (-5.6%) “.

A new plan

The government is asked to implement a New plan anti Covid. Yes, because if the regional situations are quite heterogeneous, it is clear that in general the containment measures introduced with the Dpcm of November 3, 2020 are lacking effect. “The percentage increase in cases actually – explained Renata Gili, Head of Research in Health Services at the Gimbe Foundation – that last week was in decline throughout the country, this week reversed the trend in 6 Regions.”

In terms of hospitalizations, the slow descent of the curves continues, but the employment of Covid patients still exceeds the threshold of 40% in the medical departments of 9 Regions and the 30% threshold in the intensive care units of 8 regions. . The death curve rises less steeply, but the number is still very high, approaching 4,000. “Beyond improving restrictive measures for the Christmas period – continued President Gimbe Cartabellotta in his reasoning – two factors will influence the evolution of the pandemic in our country in the coming months: the start of the vaccination campaign and the spread of the recently isolated British variant ”. Considering also the times of vaccine, with the strategic plan of the Ministry of Health Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 that reports more than 202 million potentially available doses (equivalent to 101 million complete vaccination cycles), the executive must raise new barriers to avoid a possible third wave.

Strengthen monitoring

Since Italy has spent all available wild cards, including a emergency shutdown During the first wave and a semi-closure mixed with a curfew in the second, the government must propose something different. It is unthinkable to continue disconnecting business activities to avoid meetings and contacts between people. The Italian economy, already on its knees, would not withstand a new shock of this type. What to do then?

We talk about the new English variant of Covid. Some experts believe that the government should focus on tracking of the positives, reinforcing its testing and tracking system, with an eye toward the threat from the UK (which, in all probability, has already spread to Europe). Cartabellotta’s words are emblematic: “The pandemic management plan must be re-evaluated, further strengthening measures to contain the epidemic, including the tracking of positive cases to the new variant.” The WHO has also advised all countries to further sensitize the population about the importance of social distancing measures and the use of masks.