Italo, now your destiny hangs by a thread. I imagine only four possible evolutions

by Paolo Rossi

How important is the market economy in political decisions in the Covid era? In recent months we have witnessed the incessant and continuous requests for help from our tourism companies city ​​of art that, due to the collapse of the tourist flowsThey are not at all able to support themselves financially.

Lately we have also seen the cry for help from Italo, the only Italian railway operator private In competition with Trenitalia, which also due to the forced reduction to 50% of available places imposed by social distancing, saw its income drastically reduce and its debt skyrocket.

The CTS recently denied Italo the possibility of increasing the seats offered on its trains with a decision that is difficult to understand given that all local public transport they can reach 80% of their capacity (but we regularly see the usual fully charged vehicles in the morning, so one wonders how they can apply this rule).

If Italo went bankrupt and took the books to court, the cost to Italians would be much higher: it is the very concept of market economy applied to a “difficult” sector like rail transport that is going to be blessed … at least you can imagine it (not immediately, rather with a subtle and tortuous gradualism) Trenitalia would revert to pre-Italian ticket prices dumping its inefficiencies on the real economy (have Autostrade in mind?)

Years ago there was a small precedent: who remembers the Arenaways Who wanted to start competing with Trenitalia in the “classic” Milan-Turin with Intercity low cost? As soon as he realized the threat, it didn’t take long for the “governors” of the affected regions (the infamous Robert Formigoni me Roberto Cota) to deny Arenaways the necessary clearances on the grounds that it would “compete with regional transportation.”

This company that had already acquired the rolling stock found itself filing for bankruptcy overnight and for some time Trenitalia had free rein in Milan-Turin (similar fate had the miserable attempt to make night integrated circuits between Bari and Turin, so much so that RFI and Trenitalia also received a € 300,000 fine from the Agcm).

Now Italo, a very different company, is in an extremely precarious situation: I can only imagine four possible evolutions of this precarious situation:

one. It is granted by the government of increase the number of places salable at the level of economic sustainability and therefore the business can continue “as usual” (unlikely, given the recent decision of the CTS);

two. They are granted extraordinary help by the government to write off losses (unlikely given EU laws against direct financing from private companies, and in any case it is money that goes to increase the public debt);

3. Italo it in the space of a couple of months files for bankruptcy, suspend the service and take the books to court (with the above consequences);

Four. Some European operator with robust financial structure Behind him (the usual Germans?), he buys Italo for 4 soldi to take over a slice of the rail market in Italy, so another portion of the country will find itself in foreign hands after Covid.

So I wonder what is the best interest of the country in this situation: it is worth endangering the entire market economy in the sector of railway transport up to this point? Personally, I would say no (if it were up to me I would have preferred Case 1 to happen) but what does the government have to say about it?

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