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Coronavirus affects the Italian economy: GDP in the first quarter of 2020 fell 4.7% in the previous quarter and 4.8% in the same period last year. Istat communicates this in the preliminary estimate, explaining that the data is correct for calendar purposes and is seasonally adjusted. This is an expected figure, but actually better than the one estimated by the government in Def (-5.5%), as well as those revealed by France and Spain.
The change in GDP acquired for 2020 with respect to the figure for the first quarter is -4.9% and is the result that would occur in the absence of additional changes until the end of the year.
“The preliminary estimate of the IP, explains Istat, is affected by the obstacles posed by the ongoing health emergency to the collection of basic data, which constitute the input for the preparation of national accounts. Corrective actions have been developed that have they frustrated the statistical effects and made it possible to process and disseminate data related to the first quarter of 2020. As usual, the published estimate will be subject to revision in future publications. These revisions may be to a greater extent than normal. ” the GDP decrease “is from an entity never registered from the beginning of the observation period of the current historical series beginning in the first quarter of 1995 “.” The GDP has undergone an exceptional contraction induced by the economic effects of the health emergency and by containment measures “. Of Italian GDP in the first quarter” is the synthesis of a decrease in value added in all the main production components.
On the demand side, there are large negative contributions from both the national component (before stocks) and the net external component. “The first quarter of 2020 had the same number of business days compared to the previous quarter and one business day more than in the first quarter of 2019.
Euro zone In the first quarter of 2020, adjusted GDP for seasonal variations fell 3.8% in the eurozone and 3.5% in the EU compared to the previous quarter, according to Eurostat estimates. It is the largest drop since the start of the time series in 1995. In the fourth quarter of 2019, GDP had increased 0.1% in the eurozone and 0.2% in the EU. Compared to the first quarter of 2019, GDP fell by 3.3% in the eurozone and 2.7% in the EU after increasing by + 1.0% and + 1.3% respectively in the previous quarter.
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