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Federico Calzolari (Scuola Normale) analyzed the positive data in the two cities: the figures were already growing in August
PISA. Pisa experienced a summer of “cicadas” worse than Milan. This is what emerges from a comparative study on the data of the new positives in the two cities supported by graphs. The elaboration shows an exponential and unstoppable increase in new infections in Pisa already on August 1, while the exponential curve of Milan, in the same comparative period, has a more linear trend and, in fact, with slight decreases or decelerations. The study was carried out by Federico Calzolari, director of the Department of Information and Communication Technologies at Scuola Normale.
What comes out of the graphics processing? “One thing is clear: new infections in Pisa began to increase from 1 August. Then on August 10, it was very apparent that the curve was not only not stabilizing or decreasing, but that it had a very visible momentum of exponential growth. And nobody noticed that Pisa had an exponential increase even in September and October. Unstoppable »says Calzolari. Worse than Milan? “It’s obvious. Milan has had at least a kind of flattening. Pisa has not. The trend of infections in Milan grew less rapidly than in Pisa. I don’t know if here in the city we are paying for the great desire for freedom of that time. No I know what else to attribute from a scientific point of view, that is, with data in hand, this exponential number of positives ».
Calzolari makes a criticism: “Nobody noticed.” And he explains: “Some doctors, especially epidemiologists and data analysts, warned us, but the ease of commenting positively on the data prevailed over the media. Whoever decides, that is, whoever is in charge does not listen to the scientific community and the data is very poorly disclosed ”. An example? «It is never contextualized. If I have a 38-year-old fever, it may be good news or bad. The daily positive figure says nothing. And let me explain: if I am 38 years old and have been coming with a fever for 39 days, being 38 is good news. It is not if it was okay. Actually, it is the change in temperature that is important, often more important than the numerical value itself. Therefore, it is useless to comment as good news the decrease in infections when there are 30 thousand new cases a day just because the previous day there were 30,001. It is as if by running in a car at 300 kilometers per hour you risk hitting a wall; It’s not that if I slow down a bit and hit it at “only” 299 kilometers per hour, it hurts less. “
So what are the numbers that matter? “Unfortunately, the only sensitive numbers that can be analyzed and on which to do some analysis are, in my opinion, the number of deaths and those in intensive care. And this is because the acceptance protocols are more or less similar throughout Italy. For those, however, there are not at the level of a single city, but only of the region. The undersigned, together with the scientific community led by Professor Giorgio Parisi, has long been calling for data to be collected and disseminated in a correct and intelligible manner. The data does not lie. Who does not have data, only has another opinion. Why is the data missing? “Perhaps because, if they were disclosed, those who decide would no longer be able to do so without consulting and listening to the scientific community. Today we already know that the number of new infections is at least six times lower. The serological tests say so.
Rewinding the time tape, what happened in August? “The data in Pisa and in many Italian regions and cities were clear, the curve was increasing – says Calzolari -. But the discos have reopened. The distances? Nothing. A great desire for vacations and to return to normal life has produced the disaster. In retrospect, in my opinion the only exact science, it might have been good to listen, in those vacation times, to those who pointed this out instead of pointing to psychological terrorism and passing only reassuring messages. Now, what does the data shown on the curve over Pisa tell us? “It seems that the contagion is slowing down. The slowdown does not mean that the number of patients is decreasing, but only the number of new infections per day.
