[ad_1]
VENICE Like the teeth of a hacksaw: down and up, down and up, down and up. This is the image with which the Region has been describing the epidemiological scenario of Veneto for weeks: the contagion curve has reached the famous plateau, but it has not yet begun the decline that began in other parts of Italy, blocked as it is in alternation of slight reductions and new increases. A trend similar to that registered by the United Kingdom, so much so that it gives rise to the hypothesis: according to which the English variant could also have reached the Northeast, in that large transboundary basin that goes from Trentino Alto Adige to Slovenia, passing through Friuli Venice . Giulia and Carinthia, where according to the first findings of the study carried out by the Experimental Zooprophylactic Institute of Venice (and still ongoing), mutations have already been documented during the summer.
THE OBSERVATION
The suspicion has matured in the last hours, while the order of Minister Roberto Speranza came into force and that of President Luca Zaia was issued, two measures decided on the basis of the assessments made by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, an independent body European Union that deals precisely with the prevention and control of infectious diseases in the member countries. “I read the ECDC report on the variant observed in the United Kingdom and compared the curve of these infections with ours: wow, I told myself, it seems the same trend,” confesses Francesca Russo, regional director of Prevention.
CAUTION
Of course, prudence is maximum. “At the moment, explains the public health expert, mine is just an observation, based on the shape of the curve and nothing else. But there seems to be a similarity in the distribution of the cases: first a small setback, then a fluctuating rhythm, which now falls and now resumes. But we will have to wait for the sequencing, to understand if it is just a coincidence or if the analogy is due to the same variant. Let’s say that for now I have been surprised by this very similar trend. Not only in the frequency of infections, between small decreases and sudden increases, but also in the period in question: «About a month and a half the official notes, that is, since the beginning of November. As we have pointed out repeatedly, since then we have found ourselves on the plateau: a situation of substantial stability, in which the curve of new cases struggles to fall. Another common element is the decrease in the age group in which the majority of infections are concentrated: under 60 years in the United Kingdom, up to 64 also in Veneto, where hospitalizations and deaths oscillate above all from the age of 70 .
MEASUREMENTS
But the role of the English variant, even with its contagion 70% higher, could it be enough to explain the anomaly of the northeast compared to the rest of Italy? It is hard to believe that the mutation, if its presence was found in these latitudes, could have remained confined to the area. At that moment one would wonder why, given the same virus, the decline has begun in other places and not here: perhaps because of the various measures adopted in recent weeks? “Without a doubt, Russo replies, the possible variant should also be present in other areas, which meanwhile have had a rapid decline due to the restrictions adopted, while Veneto is slower as it has maintained parameters of a less compromised scenario. So it could be a combination of causes. In addition, it is true that Friuli Venezia Giulia remained in the orange zone for a couple of weeks, but it is equally well known that now he is having difficulties turning the curve again.
THE DATABASE
“We are waiting for the sequencing of the Izsve, reiterates the head of Prevention, where the samples of the different Microbiologies will be sent, for a comparison with the database already available at the Institute. As the swabs have arrived in recent months, in fact, the Zooprophylactic has reconstructed the genetic map. I think that after this week we can find out more. As it happened in the UK, after weeks of darkness. “Colleagues in the UK were unable to lower the contagion curve, Russo concludes, and now they have found the explanation.” Blessed are you, you might say.
Angela Pederiva
© REPRODUCTION RESERVED
Last updated: 09:35
© REPRODUCTION RESERVED
[ad_2]
