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In March 2020, 49.4% more deaths were registered in Italy than in March 2019. This is revealed in the Istat Report on the impact of the epidemic on mortality, prepared together with the Istituto Superiore di Sanit, in a sample of 6,866 municipalities (87% of the 7,904 in total). Taking into account the month of March, the report reads, an increase in deaths of 49.4% at the national average, considering all causes of death. If we take as a reference the period from the first Covid-19 death reported by the Integrated Surveillance System (February 20) to March 31, the deaths range from 65,592 (average period 2015-2019) to 90,946 in 2020. The excess deaths of 25,354 units, of these 54% constituted deaths diagnosed by Covid-19 (13,710). For another 11,600 there are “suspicions” either because the swab was not performed, or because of organ dysfunction related to infection or indirect mortality, but caused by the crisis in the hospital system and fear of going to the hospital.
The deaths were concentrated in 37 northern provinces and in Pesaro-Urbino.
But there is no homogeneity in the geographic location of the deceased. The report speaks of “Three Italy”: in the Southern Regions and on the islands, the spread of infections was very limited, in those of the Center, it was on average higher than in the South, while in the Northern regions the circulation of the virus was very high. The coronavirus struck and killed, particularly in 38 provinces, 37 in the north of Pesaro-Urbino. In all these provinces, deaths from all causes have more than doubled compared to the average of 2015-2019 for the month of March. If we consider the period from February 20 to March 31, the deaths have gone from 26,218 to 49,351 (+ 23,133); just over half of this increase (52%) in deaths reported to the Covid-19 Integrated Surveillance System (12,156). Within this group, the provinces most affected by the epidemic paid a very high price in human lives with percentage increases in deaths in March 2020 compared to the triple digits of March 2015-2019: Bergamo (568%), Cremona ( 391%), Lodi (371%), Brescia (291%), Piacenza (264%), Parma (208%), Lecco (174%), Pavia (133%), Mantua (122%), Pesaro and Urbino ( 120%).
In Centrosud fewer deaths than 5 years before
In several areas of Italy, those least affected by the virus (predominantly in Centrosud) in March 2020 are even less dead than the average in recent years: in general, we read in the Istat / Iss report, in areas of low spread ( 1,817 municipalities, 34 provinces (mostly in central and southern Italy) deaths in March 2020 are on average 1.8% lower than the average of the previous five years. The figure of Rome stands out, which in March marks a -9.4% compared to the average mortality of the last 5 years: 3,757 deaths this year, 4,121 on average. Already Naples, which registers a mortality of -0.9%.
Excess mortality in elderly and sick men.
The most constant excess of mortality is found in men aged 70 to 79 years for whom deaths increase approximately 2.3 times between February 20 and March 31, after the age class 80-89 (almost 2, 2 times magnification). The increase in mortality in women, on the other hand, is more contained for all age groups. It reaches 20% more than the average of the years 2015-2019 at the end of March, both for the age group 70-79 and for the 90 and over. The highest lethality in male subjects in all age groups, with the exception of the 0-19 age group. In 34.7% of the reported cases, at least one comorbidity is reported (one of: cardiovascular pathologies, respiratory pathologies, diabetes, immune deficiencies, metabolic pathologies, oncological pathologies, obesity, kidney pathologies or other chronic pathologies).
Number to add?
There is an additional proportion of approximately 11,600 other deaths for which we can, with the data available today, only raise three possible causes: an additional mortality associated with Covid-19 (deaths in which the buffer was not performed), a related indirect mortality in Covid-19 (deaths from dysfunctions of organs such as the heart or kidneys, probable consequences of the disease triggered by the virus in unproven people, as occurs by analogy with the increase in mortality from cardiorespiratory causes during the flu) and, finally, a proportion of indirect mortality not related to the virus but caused by the crisis in the hospital system and by the fear of going to the hospital in the most affected areas. (HERE under full report).
Greedy deaths outnumber others in March
When comparing the deaths, total and Covid-19, of 2020 with the deaths due to the month of March 2017, it is observed that, since the beginning of March, in the areas of high spread of the epidemic, the number of deaths of Covid- 19 with a confirmed diagnosis higher than that registered in 2017 for other diseases such as diabetes, dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. In the middle of the same month, the number of Covid-19 deaths exceeds deaths caused by all respiratory diseases and tumors; In just over twenty days, the daily deaths reported to Covid-19 Integrated Surveillance exceeded the daily number of deaths from all causes in March 2017.
May 4, 2020 (change May 4, 2020 | 4:26 pm)
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