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Between February of this year, when in Italy the first case of COVID-19, and at the end of November, in our country they were counted 84 thousand more dead compared to the average of the previous five years. The data on the defined “excess mortality“Long awaited to better understand the impact of the pandemic, was released by theState in his last written report with theFaculty of Health which collects data on infections and deaths caused by the virus. That in the same period were 57,647. The statistical institute, however, recalls that the scope of the “official” deaths of Covid “suffers from methodological problems linked to the consolidation of databases and the difficulty in identifying deaths from Covid-19 when they occur in patients with numerous pathologies concomitants. “Therefore, the excess mortality, which takes into account” even those that may be underestimated or indirectly connected, such as deaths from delayed or missed treatment due to an overloaded healthcare system“, it’s more trustworthy.
The report also sheds light on the differences between the two waves. If we look at the total number of deaths, which between January and November were 664 thousand in total, those of Covid registered between the end of February and November represent the 9.5% of the total. But during the first wave (February-May) “this quota was 13%, while in the second wave the general contribution of deaths from Covid-19 went to 16% nationwide“If we consider the contributions by age group, mortality from Covid-19 has” contributed to 4% of the overall mortality in the 0-49-year-old class, to 8% in the 50-64-year-old class,11% in the 65-79-year-old class and all‘8% in those over 80“60% of the total deaths caused by Covid-19 refer to people over 80 years of age.
Between March and May 50 thousand deaths more than the average – The impact of the virus on mortality, from the ex post data, is very evident: “Since the end of February there was a clear reversal of the trend in light of the favorable evolution of mortality that had characterized the winter season 2019- 2020 ”. In fact, in the months of March and April, “there was a significant increase in deaths from all causes compared to the expected level based on the average for the period 2015-2019.” In general, during the first phase of the epidemic they counted “more 211 thousand dead (from March to May 2020), 50 thousand more compared to the average for the same period of 2015-2019, of which more than 45 thousand correspond to residents in the north of the country ”. The increase in the regions of north recorded “almost a doubling of deaths in March (+ 94.5% compared to the average for the same month in the 2015-2019 period) and an increase of + 75% in April ”. The excess of about 50 thousand deaths is due 72% to the increase in deaths in the population aged 80 and over. The increase in mortality in the 65-79 age group explains another 23% of the excess.
In October and November 31,700 excess deaths – In the June-September period, with the weakening of infections, a reduction in total mortality was observed, bringing the number of deaths in line with the values for the 2015-2019 period. On the contrary, as of mid-October “the effects of the second wave become more and more evident”: in absolute terms it is estimated for the months of October and November an increase in deaths from all causes of more than 31 thousand seven hundred units “. And the second wave is characterized by “a October for excess of total deaths of 13% in both the North and the Center-South found, while in November excess mortality was again distinguished in the North (+ 61.4%), compared to the Center (+39.3) and the South (+ 34.7%) ”.
Second wave more lethal than the first in some northern regions – In many northern regions, the total excess mortality for the month of November exceeds the peak of March April. In particular, in Aosta Valley (+139.0% compared to + 71% in April), in Piedmont (+ 98% in November compared to + 77% in April), Veneto (+ 42.8% compared to + 30.8% in April), and Friuli Venezia Giulia (+ 46.9% vs + 21.1%). The increase in deaths registered in November is lower than that observed in correspondence with the first wave of the epidemic only in Lombardy (+ 66% in November compared to + 192% in March and + 118% in April) and in Emilia romagna (+ 34.5% compared to + 69% in March).
Older people most affected in March-April – Another difference between the two waves refers to the impact on people. too old. In the second, “the median age of the group of cases decreases: 45-49 years compared to 60-64 years of the first wave. In percentage terms, the number of infections registered in the very old population (80 years and over) goes from 26% in the first wave to 8% in the second ”. This decline, the report continues, “is probably largely due to thegreater diagnostic ability among younger age groups and in people with less severe symptoms ”.
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