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We are not below 1 yet but we are close. As Prime Minister Conte anticipated, today is an important day, because well 5 regions change color and they are promoted.
Rt falls but risk remains high
According to new weekly report from the National Institute of Health, relating to the week of November 16 to 22, with updates to November 25, which photographs the situation of Covid infections in Italy, and the pressure on the health system, theThe contagion rate rt falls to 1.08.
A good result, a sign that the restrictive measures introduced by the government have paid off. But in the follow-up week Almost all autonomous regions or provinces remain classified at high risk of an uncontrolled epidemic and not manageable in the territory, or at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the coming weeks. In particular, 10 autonomous regions or provinces are classified as high risk of a Sars-CoV-2 transmission.
According to the document, in the period from November 4 to 17, the Rt calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 1.08 and the average Rt values between 1 and 1.25 are found in most Italian regions and provinces. In 4 regions, the Rt is less than 1 even at its highest confidence interval, indicating a significant decrease in transmissibility.
Decrease in infections for the first time in weeks.
This week is observed for the first time in a long time. decrease in the national incidence of infections by Coronavirus: in the last 14 days (706.27 per 100,000 inhabitants in the November 9-22 period vs 732.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in the November 2-15 period), although it remains at very high levels.
In several Regions, however, an increasing incidence continues to be reported. Therefore, experts warn, now there should be no premature relaxation of measures or a decrease in attention to behavior.
That is why “the need to maintain the drastic reduction of physical interactions between the people. It is essential that the population avoid all opportunities for contact with people outside their home that are not strictly necessary and stay home for as long as possible ”.
The ISS reminds you that it is mandatory to adopt rigorous individual behaviors and to respect the established sanitary measures regarding the distance and correct use of masks. The same goes for isolation and quarantine.
The 10 high-risk regions
the 10 high-risk regions or equated to high are:
- Abruzzo
- Calabria (cannot be reliably assessed due to incomplete surveillance data)
- Campania
- Emilia romagna
- Friuli Venezia Giulia
- Lombardy
- Autonomous province of Bolzano
- Puglia
- Sardinia
- Tuscany.
Among the 10 Regions, 9 have been classified as high risk or equivalent to high risk for 3 or more consecutive weeks, 5 have a transferability calculated as of November 4 compatible with a transmission scenario 2 and the remaining 5 have a scenario type 1, except in one case, Calabria, in which the classification is not considered reliable due to incomplete data.
The other 10 regions
The remaining 10 are classified as moderate risk, of which 7 with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month, and have a transmissibility calculated as of November 4 compatible with a transmission scenario of 2 in 2 of these and with a type 1 scenario for the rest.
Given the transmissibility and the high probability of an imminent transition to the high risk classification, the ISS still recommends to the health authorities of the 7 Autonomous Regions or Provinces with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month of evaluate the opportunity to adopt new mitigation measures, also at the subregional level.
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