[ad_1]
PHOTOThe transmissibility index Rt calculated in symptomatic cases is equal to 1.18. Mean Rt values between 1 and 1.25 are found in most Italian / PA regions; Starting this week in some Regions / PA the estimated value of Rt is less than 1. This is evidenced in the weekly monitoring Iss-Ministry of Health. In the follow-up last week, an Rt transmissibility index calculated in symptomatic cases equal to 1.43 was found. There were also mean Rt values greater than 1.25 in most of the Italian regions / AP and greater than one in all regions / AP. As of November 17, 18 regions had exceeded at least a critical threshold in the medical or intensive care area. If current transmissibility is maintained, almost all Regions / PAs have a probability greater than 50% of exceeding at least one of these thresholds in a month. The continuous increase in people with Covid-19 admitted to hospitals implies an inevitable erosion of resources for the care of patients with other diseases. This was revealed by the draft monitoring of the ISS ministry.
This week there is a new increase in cases that brings the incidence in the last 14 days to 732.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 10/26 / 2020-08 / 11/2020 (vs 648.3 per 100,000 inhabitants in period 26 / 10 / 2020-08 / 11/2020). The increase in cases is widespread in almost the entire country. This is highlighted in the draft of the ISS-Ministry of Health monitoring.
Three Regions are at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month. Given the transmissibility and the high probability of an imminent transition to the high-risk classification, “it is recommended that the health authorities of the 3 Regions / PAs with a high probability of progressing to high-risk in the next month evaluate the possible adoption of new measures of mitigation “. This was revealed in the draft of the monitoring of the ISS-Ministry of Health.
“We are worried about the next holidays, but now we have the duty to analyze what will happen at Easter if this second wave is not adequately repressed. Otherwise it is like having very concentrated diets and then we get angry if we put on a kilo later in the week Either you can find a maintenance, at least until the vaccine comes, or you give up the third wave. ” To say that it is Massimo Galli, Director of Infectious Diseases of the Luigi Sacco Hospital in Milan, during the conference “Covid Geo: safe communities. Science and technology to restart safely and forever”. The electoral day of September 21 and 22 in Italy (referendum and regional elections) caused about 88 thousand more infections than Sars-Cov-2. This was stated by Massimo Galli, director of Infectious Diseases at the Sacco Hospital in Milan, at the conference “Covid Geo: safe communities. Science and technology to restart safely and forever.” Galli presented an estimate made by statistician Livio Fenga de Istat. “I said ‘look, this is not the time for the elections’ – Galli continues – and these have cost, according to a modeling, 88 thousand cases that otherwise would not have occurred. The dead? We want to be low and count at 2%. Just think that 880 is 1%. The data is realism, “he adds.
REPRODUCTION RESERVED © Copyright ANSA
