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Isolate to save. That’s what a emergency shutdown Adaptation to some age groups at higher risk in case of infection with COVID-19. «It would be enough to isolate those over 80 years of age to reduce by half or almost the direct mortality of virus. If we later manage to effectively isolate those over 60 years of age, mortality would be reduced to 0.07%, approximately 10 times less. “This is evidenced in research by Ispi, the Institute for International Political Studies, published online. Even in a scenario of generalized viral circulation in the younger population, would go from an excess of direct mortality for Covid-19 of 460 thousand people without isolation, to 120 thousand (-74%) if those over 70 years were isolated and 43 thousand (-91 %) if those over 60 were isolated – reports the study – This is like saying that total mortality, over the course of a calendar year, in Italy would increase by 71% without isolation, but only by 18% with isolation of those over 70 and only by 7% with isolation of those over 60 “.
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According to official data “in Italy (but more or less the same happens all over the world), 82% of those who died from Covid were over 70 years old and 94% were over 60 years old. On the other hand, it is natural that this is the case – explains Matteo Villa, ISPI researcher – It is now known that the plausible lethality of the virus grows exponentially with age, killing less than 5 out of every 10,000 people in the age group of 30 39 years old, but more than 7 people out of 100 among those over 80“. For this reason,” despite all the ethical doubts and political issues, “explains Villa,” isolation is a solution that we believe should be taken into consideration immediately, given the serious phase the pandemic is in today. “
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The study hypothesizes several pessimistic scenarios about the evolution of the pandemic. It is predicted that “70% of the Italian population is infected, the direct mortality caused by the virus would be equivalent to just under 0.8% of the population, almost doubling the annual mortality rate that in 2019 was 1.1%. Adding up the probable overload of intensive care, deaths would amount to around 1% and the average age of the deceased would decrease significantly. “To avoid tragic consequences of this kind,” once the epidemic has passed the controls and the curve is rising exponentially, a blockade is practically inevitable that forces the majority of work activities to stop, inflicting a severe economic blow to the country “continues Villa – Even if the subsequent rebound was rapid, it is by no means certain that all the ground lost during the blockade; in fact, this has not been the case to date and even the most optimistic pre-second wave forecasts did not predict a recovery without repercussions. But what would happen if, instead of decreeing a national lockdown, once a certain level of guard was passed, we decided to isolate the elderly in a perfect way? In other words, what would happen if a confinement was decreed only for the age groups with the highest risk? »Asks the researcher.
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Well, as already anticipated, “even in a scenario of generalized viral circulation in the younger population, with one confinement by age group, an excess of direct mortality for Covid-19 of 460 thousand people without isolation would fall, to 120 thousand (-74%) if those over 70 were isolated and 43 thousand (-91%) if those over 60 were isolated – says the report – It is like saying that total mortality, over the course of a calendar year , in Italy it would increase by 71% without insulation, but only 18% with insulation over 70 years old, and only 7% with insulation over 60 “. From an economic point of view, a selective confinement by age group “would avoid the most serious repercussions. In Italy, in 2019, the workforce was made up of 25.9 million people. Of them, 2.3 million (the 9% of the workforce) were over 60. Going up only 5 years, workers over 65 years old are already reduced to about 600 thousand people (2.4% of the total), while if we only considered those over 60 years of age, we would stop at about 130 thousand (0.5% of the total). In addition, for a certain part of these people, isolation does not necessarily mean absence of work, because the option of remote work would continue to be available (which would still be crucial to extend as much as possible to the entire workforce) ”, concludes Villa.
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