[ad_1]
am 16,999 and contagion registered in the last 24 hours on a total of 171,586 swabs analyzed (diagnosis and control). Yesterday 12,756 new cases were registered, but in a much smaller number of tests: 118,475. Therefore, the positive / swab ratio drops from 10.8 to 10% (to be precise today it is 9.90%). If we take the given a week ago (Thursday, December 3) we realize how the number of new positives has decreased (16,999 against 23,225), but at the same time the number of tests has also decreased significantly (they were more than 226 thousand). A trend that has been going on for a few days. Why are there fewer tampons? The GIMBE Foundation also asks today, which points out that in the week of December 2 to 8 there was an “unjustified reduction of more than 121 thousand cases analyzed (-18.1%), which only increased in 5 Regions compared to the week previous “.
Second Nino Cartabellotta, President of the Independent Foundation, “the effect of the measures on the increase in new cases is overestimated by a significant reduction in tests” and in any case “the descent of the curve will be very slow, certainly not comparable to that of the first wave”.
That of tampons, and in particular of proven cases, is therefore a trend to take into account. Just as you need to keep an eye on the swab positivity rate, which has now been substantially stable for about ten days. We expected (or perhaps expected) a more rapid decline in this parameter, a critical indicator in understanding how effective our testability is.
Back to given about infections, as pointed out Lorenzo ruffino On Twitter, if we take the cases registered between Monday and Thursday, the variation with respect to the average of the last four weeks is -47%, while the number of swabs (diagnosis and control) has been reduced by 31% .
Cases between Monday and Thursday:
- This week: 58,317
- A week ago: 79,661
- Two weeks ago: 101,018
- Three weeks ago: 130,003
- Four weeks ago: 131,308
Cases between Monday and Thursday
– this week: 58,317
– last week: 79,661
– two weeks ago: 101,018
– three weeks ago: 130,003
– four weeks ago: 131,308Change from the average of the last four weeks
– almost: -47%
– buffers: -31%– Lorenzo Ruffino (@Ruffino_Lorenzo) December 10, 2020
Data on deaths, hospitalizations and intensive care
If the contagion curve falls, the same cannot be said for the deaths that today rise again with 887 deaths in 24 hours.
If we compare the number of deaths registered between Monday and Thursday with that of the last weeks, there is a slight decrease. But it goes without saying that we are still faced with veritable war bulletins.
Deaths between Monday and Thursday
- This week: 2,548
- Last week: 3,134
- Two weeks ago: 3,027
- Three weeks ago: 2,641
- Four weeks ago: 2,195
In any case, the variation with respect to the average of the last four weeks is -7%. It is difficult to say if today’s figure (887) was determined by the regions’ regular delays in sending data, as was the case with the “registration” of 993 victims on December 3 (in that case Lombardy had reported 128 relative deaths more than a week ago). Just as it is difficult to explain why the number of admissions to intensive care units is much higher than in recent days.
Entrance to intensive care
- December 10, 251
- December 9, 152
- December 8, 192
- December 7, 144
- December 6, 150
- December 5, 192
- December 4, 201
- December 3, 217
Looking at the data for the regions, you can see how Lombardy reported 62 entries today against 24 yesterday and 26 on December 8. But also Veneto, which yesterday registered only 14 entries, today scores 42. Just a communication problem or, instead, the sign of a change in trend? The first hypothesis is the most likely if we think that the number of patients in critical wards has been steadily decreasing for two weeks.
The good news of the day is the significant decrease in hospitalized patients with symptoms (-575), while the balance between entries and exits in IT rooms is equal to -29. The fact is, as GIMBE points out today, the employment threshold for COVID patients remains above 40% in medical departments and 30% in intensive care in 15 regions.
Coronavirus: why does Rt no longer fall in Lombardy?
When looking at trends in individual territories, the signals come from Lombardy in countertrend. As pointed out Roberto Battiston, Physicist and president of the Italian Space Agency (ASI), the Rt index has stopped falling for ten days in the region. After reaching its lowest value since the beginning of autumn, below 0.7, around November 25, the Rt index continues to fluctuate around 0.8 while in many other regions it continues to fall towards lower values. Arturo Artom, engineer and founder of Confapri, and Battiston himself spoke about it today in the “Corriere della Sera” analyzing the numbers of the second wave. According to the two academics, the resumption of contagion in October is not related to summer behavior, although it should be linked to the reopening of offices and the resumption of school activity, with the consequent overcrowding in public transport.
Around October 23, the curve changes dramatically and the Rt index in all Italian regions, with few differences, falls again.
As of November 27, however, the arrest of the descent of the Rt. Why? What happened? We can only make assumptions, with the data available. But Artom and Battiston wonder if the new measures in November may have had counterproductive effects. What do you mean?
Forcing the inhabitants of medium-large cities within the limits of their municipalities may have favored in some way new contacts or meetings to determine the resumption of contagion.
Massimo Galli: “Without precautions the third wave is obvious”
Meanwhile, calls for prudence by white coats are multiplying ahead of the Christmas holidays. There is “a more serious problem” than the debate on curbing mobility between municipalities, says the infectious disease specialist. Massimo galli to Adnkronos. A question “on which I venture knowing that it would be better not to do it: it is the problem of the great North-South movements”, as well as of the returns from abroad because “we are also the South of something.” “Frankly, it is not a problem without concerns” reiterates the infectious diseases specialist, explaining that “the return of so many people who live away from home for work or study it’s a problem ” and “it won’t be a good thing.” On this “there is little doubt”.
As for the third wave, Galli says that “the doctor did not necessarily order it.” But “if we do not take all the necessary precautions, and do not continue to maintain them, I can only follow the positions already expressed by some of my illustrious colleagues and say that the recovery from the disease in January is almost a foregone conclusion.”
[ad_2]
