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It has been exactly one year since the rockets of Washington they beat and killed Qasem Soleimani, the most powerful leader of the Quds forces Gods Guardians of the Revolution, one of the most powerful and protected men in Iran and right hand of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali khamenei. An unscrupulous move, that of President Trump, which raised fears of a bloody new conflict in the Middle East and an escalation of terrorist attacks. This has not happened, apart from individual attacks on some American buildings in Iraq, but in these 365 days the tension between the US and the Islamic Republic has risen again thanks also to the breakdown of thenuclear deal wanted by the Washington administration. However, 2021 begins in a new light: on January 20, he will take office in the White House. Joe biden which will aim to review the global strategy already adopted by Barack Obama and resume dialogue with the government of Hassan Rohani |, hoping to return to pre-Trump relationships.
“We don’t want the beginning of a friendship, but we want reduce unnecessary stress and hostility ”,“ there is no need to seek a new agreement, we already have one. If we restore it, we can turn off all our centrifuges in an hour“From the day of Biden’s official victory to the last US presidential election, messages from Tehran that keep the doors open for the restoration of the JCPOA agreement. But without new negotiations or changes with respect to the one that was born together with the Obama administration and the European countries and that had initiated a relaxing season. But today an agreement would be useful for both parties. Iran, which, despite having vigorously resumed enriching its uranium reserves after the break with Donald Trump, is bowed down by the new international isolation imposed by Washington. But also to Biden’s United States, which could thus immediately restart the global strategy that characterized them during the last DEM administration, before the arrival ofAmerica first. Disappointing, however, some allies in the area, Israel me Saudi Arabia usually.
However, until you sit down at a table, the tension will remain high. The wound is still fresh from the latest affront suffered at home, the murder of the father scientist of nuclear energy in Tehran. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, killed in the street during an ambush that government leaders suspect Hassan Rohani |, is the work of Mossad Israeli, probably with the support of the Mojahedin-e Khalq (Mek), a formation that opposes the theocratic regime of the ayatollahs.
But Iran, the historical enemy of the area, will be the main one. diplomatic field of action in the Middle East where the new team of the Secretary of State will have to move, Anthony Blinken. Not forgetting the other hot theaters in the area, Afghanistan me Syria In the first place, where the United States must continue to play a leading role, both for the stability of these countries and to allow Washington to continue to have a weight in the region and not give too much space to the advancement of other actors such as Russia me Turkey.
Iran needs to work on a new nuclear deal
Goal number one is to immediately rebuild a dialogue with Tehran on the nuclear issue. Since Trump decided to break up “The worst deal ever”As he called it, relations between the two countries have returned to historic lows, with bipartisan violations and actions that have raised the risk of military escalation. On the one hand, Washington has imposed new sanctions against the Islamic Republic, pushing it back into the isolation in which it had remained until the entire presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. On the other hand, Tehran, having abandoned hopes of a new negotiating table, has once again carried out its nuclear program.
In all these respects, if a new understanding is to be reached, it is necessary for the parties to take enormous steps backwards. Nobody has spoken about the future Biden administration yet, although the most credible hypothesis is that the former vice president wants to go back on the path traveled by Obama. But the latest murders complicate matters considerably for both parties. Especially for the government of Tehran which, with the June 2021 presidential election now at the gates, you must try to stop the advance of the gods Conservatives related to the narrative of “Great Satan” and not inpragmatic approach of Rohani, weakened precisely by the actions of the last American administration that prevented the continuation of the diplomacy strategy inaugurated and carried out by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Javad zarif.
It remains to be understood how a possible new opening towards the Republic of Ayatollahs can equalize the new harmony with the Israeli government. With Obama, relations between Washington and Tel Aviv had reached one of the lowest levels in recent history precisely because of the increased dialogue with the government of Hassan Rohani |. One of the main concerns of Trump and his adviser-in-law Jared kushner it was instead the strengthening of ties with the Jewish state, also becoming mediators behind the so-called Abrahamic agreements with the Arab countries closest to Washington, such as Emirates, Bahrain and finally the Morocco, which Kushner himself did not hesitate to define “An explosion of peace” brought by Trump to the Middle East.
Afghanistan, the risk of a hasty withdrawal
The other front that has heated up is Afghanistan. The United States intervened militarily in the country after the September 11, 2001 attacks and from that moment there “War on terrorism” inaugurated by the then president George W. Bush has not known an end, with 978 billion dollars spent to date, nearly 49 billion a year, roughly 157 thousand people killed, including more than 43,000 civilians and more than 2,400 American soldiers who have fallen. A war that led to the murder of Osama bin Laden, after the famous foray into his hideout of Abbottabad, in Pakistan, in May 2011, but that has changed little in terms of the presence of terrorist organizations in the country. THE Taliban control or actively operate in 70% of the country, as has never happened since the end of their government, while Islamic State has his in Khorasan District (province) more active after the fall of Caliphate, with dozens of attacks against civilians, minorities and local and foreign security forces.
Although it did not serve, if not for very short periods, to guarantee a Stop the fire Between the Taliban and the Kabul government, Trump is credited with having more than any other favored dialogue with the Students coranici, reaching a peace agreement between Washington and the men ofAmir al-Mu’minin, Hibatullah Akhundzada, and trying to start conversations to reach the between them and the Afghan executive headed by Ashraf ghani. However, the results were limited: if the terms of an agreement between the United States and the Taliban have been signed, the same cannot be said for intra-Afghan dialogues, with the two sides continuing to collide on the field.
Syria and Iraq, get out of the stalemate and leave no room for Isis
The fronts that have cooled, at least from a diplomatic point of view, are those of Syria and Iraq. Following the disappearance of the Caliphate and Turkish actions in northern Syria, the peace process also experienced a sharp slowdown. In the two countries that have witnessed the territorial advance of Black flags of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the policy adopted by Trump’s United States was to withdrawal. They did so in northeastern Syria, where they actually left the field in Turkish interference in predominantly Kurdish areas, barely staying on the ground 500 military, and also in Iraq, where the latest newspaper rumors speak of a plan to reduce operations from 3,000 to 2,500 by the end of the year.
However, on the one hand, the new administration will have to deal with a level of security that has deteriorated again, with the Islamist group re-launching attacks thanks to its sleeper cells, first in Iraq and then also in Syria. On the other hand, the impasse at the negotiation table must be taken into account to understand whether it is possible to get out of the current situation. the status quo. The government of Bashar al-Assad, protected by Russia me Iran, maintains control of its territories, continuing its offensive in the area of Idlib, where there are still pockets of resistance, while Turkey has taken control of the strip of land along its border. On December 1, a Geneva, me inter-Syrian conversations mediated byHe-she-it for the modification of the country’s constitution. This is the fourth round of meetings after the first three held in the Swiss city and practically starting in the fall of 2019. But if the situation on the ground does not change, the United States and the so-called Western coalition would be the big losers of one of the bloodiest civil wars of the 21st century.
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