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The last alarm isOrder of Doctors: there is no time to waste, you need a national blockade, the situation is out of control. Professor Walter Ricciardi, advisor to the Ministry of Health, guest of What’s the weather like: «This is a foretold national tragedy. We already have a 10 percent increase in deaths from heart attack and stroke. If we do not act now, tomorrow we will have deaths and we will not be able to heal today. the emergency shutdown in certain metropolitan areas it must be done immediately. I would have already decided Naples».
What’s going on? Let’s go back to April 3: Italy had been locked up for less than a month, it was in a tunnel of fear and uncertainty because it faced an unknown enemy, the coronavirus. In the halls intensive care 4,068 patients were hospitalized that day. There had never been so many before, there wouldn’t be so many in the next few days. Slowly, the number has started to decline since then, until the illusion of August when there were fewer than 40 ICU patients to COVID-19.
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Soaring
Unfortunately, in a few months everything has changed, also yesterday another 115 places were filled, to reach a total of 2,749. With this trend, it means that in two weeks we will exceed the peak of April 3. We will go well beyond 4,068. On the contrary: if the percentage increase is similar to that of last week – around 4-5 percent – in eight days we will reach the same figure as the April peak. However, given that there was a slight slowdown, we can prudently assume that the 4,100 mark will be exceeded in two weeks. Of course, compared to the pre-Covid era, the available places have increased (there were 5,179, today there are about 7,000 although according to Commissioner Arcuri they can be activated up to 9,518), but an impact of this type is very dangerous. Patients admitted to hospitals represent 6 percent of the total of those who are positive in Italy today. Of that portion that needs hospitalization, 9.5 percent are in intensive care. Therefore, only 0.5 percent of those who are -to date- infected in Italy need a ventilator: it seems a small percentage, but if we take into account that there are 558 thousand positives in our country, it is easy to understand that the The health care system, however improved, cannot resist. You can create the physical structure, but in the end you won’t have a sufficient number of rescuers: there are no trained specialists.
Countdown
Professor Massimo Andreoni is director of Infectious Diseases at the Policlinico di Tor Vergata in Rome, professor and scientific director of Simit (Italian Society for Infectious and Tropical Diseases). Observe: “The figures are very clear, within two weeks we will be able to pass the peak of patients in intensive care in April. Keep in mind that in my two infectious disease wards, for example, we have semi-intensive patients, with assisted respiration thanks to the helmet. Obviously they still have a very high level of care, but there is a tendency, as far as possible, not to overwhelm intensive care. Even supposing to establish more places, we would not know which professionals to turn to. Rescuers are not created out of thin air. ‘ What will happen in two or three weeks? “We will be in a dramatic situation, we will not be able to handle such a large number of intensive care patients.” In April, more than half of those hospitalized in intensive care were concentrated in three regions – Lombardy, Piedmont and Emilia-Romagna -, today the distribution is different, more homogeneous throughout the country. «I would add – observes Professor Andreoni – another reasoning. When we reached the figure of 4,068 admissions to intensive care, we had already been locked up for a few weeks. We were in a situation where you knew that, sooner or later, there would be a slowdown, the operators saw lightning, because we knew that the effects of the closures would come. We said to ourselves: let’s resist, the situation will improve. Today we do not see this opening. We are much more distressed. The restrictions imposed are only slowing the rise in infections. The closings decided in the last Dpcm arrived too late, they were fine when there were 20 thousand cases a day, not today that we are at 40 thousand ».
Territory
And from all regions there are reports of emergency situations. In Sicily, a doctor from the Catania Polyclinic said: “There are ambulances lined up for hours, the Covid area is saturated and forced to accept more than its capacity for the good of patients.” We will implode ». A report from the regional TV TGS reports that 54 Covid patients are parked in the emergency room of the Palermo hospital and there is a lack of oxygen sources. The mayor of Palermo, Leoluca Orlando, in a letter to Prime Minister Conte and Governor Musumeci states: “If it is true that emergency rooms lack oxygen and that in hospital wards they have begun to choose which patients to try to save and which no, “war medicine” scenarios are foreshadowed. “The Sicilian 5 Star Movement has requested the dispatch of inspectors from the Ministry of Health. The Sicilian Region has denied there is a lack of oxygen and beds.
Other examples. In Puglia, the Order of Physicians explains: “With the trend of constant growth, in the Immaculate Conception we run the risk of having 400 deaths and the saturation of the Covid beds”. Umbria is setting up a field hospital in Perugia and will ask the Marches for help for intensive care. But the Brands are also under pressure. In several hospitals in Naples a similar situation, with long lines of emergency vehicles and patients treated on board. Piedmont is exhausted. Alessandro Stecco, university professor and doctor at the Novara hospital, exponent of the League, launches an appeal to the NGOs: «They kidnap the medical personnel from your hospitals abroad to Piedmont. The beds and especially the staff are running out. We need everyone’s help.
Covid, here are the Regions that are at risk of becoming the red zone according to the ISS report
The ‘red list’ looms over the regions: Campania, Veneto and Tuscany are at risk of leaving the yellow zone and Alto Adige already becomes the red zone beforehand. The report from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità arrives in the next few hours, with the data thermometer that could widen the anti-contagion grip in the country.
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