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The Covid emergency is still far from resolved and current signals confirm it. The latest Covid Monitoring report issued by the Ministry of Health confirms “the counter-trend signal of the transmission rate reported last week throughout the country.”
The reversal of the trend is also confirmed in the rest of Europe where there has been an increase in cases in some countries (United Kingdom, Holland and Germany) and a lack of reduction in infections with stabilization of the epidemic curve in others (Spain and France) . Not to mention the appearance of the English variant that has produced a new increase in infections.
“In general – the report reads – the incidence is still very high and the impact of the epidemic still remains in most of the country. Furthermore, a moderate or high risk of epidemic is still observed in most Regions / Ppaa. uncontrolled or unmanageable. “In particular, there are 5 regions classified as high risk: Liguria, Marche, Puglia, Umbria and Veneto. Twelve regions / ppaa at moderate risk, of which 4 (Emilia Romagna, Molise, Pa Trento and Valle d’Aosta) with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month, if current transmissibility remains unchanged, instead there are four low risk regions.
“A high impact of the epidemic is still observed in most of the Regions / ASF, particularly due to an overload of welfare services. As of 12/21/2020, 13 Regions / ASF had exceeded at least a critical threshold in the medical or IT area. The occupancy rate of ICU beds still exceeds national employment thresholds. Overall, the number of people admitted to the ICU is decreasing from 3,003 (12/15/2020) to 2,731 (21 / 12/2020); the number of people hospitalized in medical areas also decreased from 27,342 (12/15/2020) to 25,145 (12/21/2020). This trend at the national level underlies strong interregional variations “.
The Rt index stands at 0.90 (in Puglia it is 0.88). A slight increase in the last two weeks. While, in terms of cases not attributable to known transmission channels, the data is almost identical to last week. Cases detected after the onset of symptoms decreased by almost two percentage points (from 34.7% to 33%). 31.2% were detected by screening activities and in 10.5% of the cases the reason for the evaluation was not reported.
In conclusion, the incidence still high, the Rt index still 0.90 and the still high impact on social services suggest the application of urgent measures. The risk of a further increase in cases with a view to the Christmas holidays remains high: “The increased mobility and interpersonal interaction typical of sociability this season could determine a significant increase in the transmission of Sars-CoV-2. In the situation described, this would imply a consequent rapid increase in cases to levels potentially higher than that observed in November in a context in which the impact of the epidemic on health workers, services and the population is still very high ”.
