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After days in which, although slowly and due to the various restrictions introduced at the national level, the contagion curve had been gradually decreasing, now on the island it has risen again. The Rt index calculated on the real number of tampons made touches 1.10 and hospitalizations grow again. The uncomfortable data comes from the statistical model developed by a team of researchers from the Department of Economics, Business and Statistics at the University of Palermo. Although the figures are updated to December 30, the trend is confirmed by the number of positives that in Sicily in recent days has always been around a thousand new cases.
The infections detected today, as we know, date back on average 14 days ago, that is, to mid-December, that is, in the phase in which the national government was busy in the elaboration of the new restrictive measures with a view to Christmas and New Years. Even before the blocking of movements between Regions.
Looking at the graphs made by professors Vito Muggeo, Andrea Consiglio, Gianluca Sottile, Vincenzo Giuseppe Genova, Giorgio Bertolazzi, Giovanni Boscaino and Mariano Porcu (from the University of Cagliari), published in this site the growth of the percentage of positives as a function of the number of swabs performed in sicily in two weeks it went from minus 1.7 to plus 1.7 percent and the “adjusted” Rt index from 0.90 to 1.10. The hospitalization curve is also moving upward, which between November 24 and December 25 (of) grew by less than 1.6 percent and increased by 1.7 percent from December 25 to 30. The intensive care situation is calmer.
The Sicilian situation is not in line with what is happening nationwide, where the curve as of December 30 continued to fall and the “adjusted” Rt index was 0.93, and not even with what is happening in other regions, particularly affected by Covid. In lombardyFor example, the growth rate of the positive curve in real buffers is negative (-1.1) and the “adjusted” Rt rate is 0.94. On the island, however, things are better than that in Campania, where the number of new positives on the basis of the swabs made even grows 6.1 percent and the “adjusted” Rt index even reaches 1.39.
Paradoxically, however, if you go and look the comparison between regions, it turns out that in Sicily, again as of December 30, the positive rate in the number of tampons made is 19.4 percent, therefore almost one in five, compared to 17.7 in Campania, while that nationally the figure is up to 27.4 percent.
