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Covid cases are doubling every month, so “in November we are at risk of 16 million cases a day.” Thus in Buongiorno, in Sky TG24 Walter Ricciardi, member of the WHO executive committee and consultant to the Minister of Health. “The relaxation that has occurred in everyone since the summer has caused a drop in guard. Now there are Regions that have been found to be more or less prepared, and my concern is that this preparation is not yet adequate, especially for when the flu will arrive, and there are other Regions that have been found less prepared, that is, they did not increase the capacity of evidence that was presumably necessary and was absolutely necessary, ”said Ricciardi, sounding the alarm for the next several weeks.
“Faced with what awaits us,” he explained, “which is enormous pressure with the arrival of the flu, it was necessary to strengthen the testing system by extending it to all structures, both public and private that can do so, and then with first aid that in many cases they have not even made the differentiated routes. The historical fact that all pandemics have a second wave more dangerous than the first has been underestimated. I do not want to blame the Regions, I know that yesterday some presidents resented my statements, but I want to emphasize that in the face of a respiratory virus pandemic we must all work together and base decisions on scientific evidence. The moment you ignore the message that you have to take advantage of the summer months to prepare, you are wrong ”.
“What has happened since June is a doubling of cases every month. We had 200 cases, then 400, then 800, then 1600 and now we are in more than 4 thousand cases. So in a month we run the risk of having more than 8,000 cases a day and in two months, when the flu arrives, we will have 16,000 cases in one day. is the government advisor account.
“School closure must be absolutely avoided, as it is absolutely to avoid a general closure. At this moment there is no hypothesis of the closure of establishments or commercial activities, we are only thinking about what are the possible activities that involve unjustified gatherings of non-primary activities that may be limited in some way ”.
The hypothesis of reducing the quarantine from fourteen to ten days “we are thinking about it, based on the scientific evidence of this particular moment. In our opinion, the quarantine can be reduced to ten days as it is done in Germany, with one swab instead of two swabs. It is something that we are recommending as scientific advisers to Minister Speranza and I hope that the Government will take it into consideration, ”explained Riccirdi. “We are analyzing – he said – what Germany has done, which reduced the quarantine of suspects from fourteen to ten days with a single negative sample to authorize the end of the quarantine. It is a hypothesis that can be considered, then must be carefully evaluated by the CTS, and then it can be in some deliberate way. We are proposing the same behavioral hypothesis of Germany that, from the point of scientific evidence, loses something, but allows easier management of the epidemic, especially at this time when cases are more than 4 thousand a day.
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