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In Italy, the 3% threshold that indicates the relationship between positive cases of coronavirus and manufactured tampons has been exceeded: what experts have called the “embankment” of the pandemic according to physicist Giorgio Sestili, founder and among the editors of the Facebook page “Coronavirus: Scientific data and analysis”. Exceeding this value explains the increase in cases that occurred on October 7. Today the cases have increased, exceeding the threshold of 4,400 with 128 thousand swabs performed.
Covid Lazio, newsletter October 8, 2020: contagion record: 359 (144 in Rome). Duplication test ready. D’Amato: “New measures in Latina”
Covid Italia, today’s newsletter, October 8, 2020: 4,458 new cases (+780 since yesterday) and 22 deaths (-9). Record of swabs, 128 thousand. Intensive care is on the rise
THE BREAKING OF THE ARGINO A few days ago we hypothesized that between Wednesday and Thursday, with the increase in tampons that …
Posted by Coronavirus – Analysis and scientific data on Thursday, October 8, 2020
The 3% levee calculation was written by writer and engineer Thomas Pueyo in an article that went viral last spring and since then this threshold has found great consensus in the scientific world as well. “It is a value that indicates that the goal is to do a lot of swabs and find few positives,” says Sestili. In August, the ratio between positive cases and tests was just over 1, continued the physicist, but now we are above 4%: “that means that the dam is broken and that now we are missing many cases.” It is a value above the threshold, but lower than that found, for example, in April 2020, when the ratio between analyzed cases and swabs was around 10%. In general, the expert continues, it can be said that while the ratio is low, the cases analyzed are almost all the real ones, as happened in the summer. If, on the contrary, the ratio rises, the cases begin to escape: the tests do not reach everyone and those that do escape continue to spread the infection. Exceeding the threshold value of 3%, he concludes, “justifies yesterday’s high jump: when the embankment broke, we must expect an increase in cases, the number of which will probably continue to grow in the coming weeks.”
Last updated: 19:43
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