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In a month, but perhaps even earlier, Campania will be able to enter directly into the orange zone or worse, in the red zone of criticality of Covid, with the consequent restrictions on the movement of people and the opening of shops. So, if the progression of Sars-Cov2 infections continues in this way, if the Rt, the contagion index, continues to increase (it is already above 1, already today) we run the risk of having Christmas locked up. Everything is in black and white, in the document released by the Higher Institute of Health “(the twisted title is” In the monitoring of risks defined on October 30, the transmissibility scenarios and the prioritization of national intervention “) to explain the justification for the classification of Italian Regions in red, orange and yellow.
From the analysis of the 52 pages published today it is clear that the The situation in Campania goes well beyond the yellow zone with “moderate risk” but that, at the same time, the enormous delays with which regional data flow to Rome, an issue raised in recent weeks, did not allow a precise examination of the situation. Today Gianni rezza (Ministry of Health) explained that in Campania there are many infections but the transmission of the virus is limited. But this is based on the data you have. What if the scenario was much more serious?
In the outcome indicators related to the resilience of health services region by region in Campania, ranked «moderate with high probability of progression»The state of the art is clearly described by the national health authorities. An X-ray that takes into account, let us always remember, the numbers provided by the Campania region, which in turn is notified by the local health authorities and hospitals.
Increasing cases in both streams. A strong delay in notification was detected in the cases of the ISS flow that could make the evaluation of these indicators less reliable. Rt above 1 during the 95% credibility interval. The number of active outbreaks and cases outside the transmission chains is increasing. Employment rates in intensive care (+ 4%) and in medical areas (+ 8%) are increasing. The probability of reaching critical thresholds in the ICU in the next few days is greater than 50%. The probability of progression could be underestimated due to the lack of information on the number of hospitalized cases returned (ie reported) to the integrated surveillance system.
To the question “do you think that virus transmission in Campania is no longer effectively manageable with local measures (ie red areas)?” Campania by mouth of the governor Vincenzo De Luca he answered no.
From a political point of view, it means that the president of the regional body will be able (already has the right) to continue deciding red zones in the territories of its competence (at risk are the north of Naples and Casertano, where thousands of infections). The schools will remain closed and according to Fanpage.it De Luca could – but it is not certain, the hypothesis is being studied – impose quarantine on those who come from the red zones.
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