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The identification of contagions outside of China is worrying … There could have been more than 1,700 cases in Wuhan so far (Chinese authorities spoke of 41, ed) … the size of the numbers indicates that significant person-to-person transmission of the virus cannot be excluded … it is recommended to intensify surveillance and increase the level of preparedness. The alarm had been launched on January 17, more than a month before the outbreak of the epidemic in Italy. They are the five mathematicians at Imperial College London who wrote down the results of a study that had not been heard for a long time. Also in this group is an Italian, Ilaria Dorigatti, thirty-seven years old from Trento, for nine years at the famous British university where she teaches epidemiology of infectious diseases and develops statistical models to understand how viruses are transmitted in populations. . A close collaborator of Neil Ferguson, the scientist who made Boris Johnson change his mind about the policy to fight the virus, Dorigatti also followed the latest report, published yesterday, on future scenarios for Italy. A return to pre-quarantine mobility levels of 20% could cause a much greater increase in deaths than what occurred in the current wave … Other SOS, therefore.
Doctor, let’s start with that first report. How do you reread the initial inertia of Western governments today?
There has been some resistance, it is true, nobody wanted to accept the gravity of the thing thinking that the estimates were exaggerated. But it should also be said that when there is no evidence, taking action is not easy. In any case, Italy’s responses, which dictated the line, have been strong and effective.
How many lives could have been saved if containment measures began immediately?
This is an estimate that we have not yet developed. However, we hope that in the future the world is more aware of the risk posed by emerging viruses and can take seriously the alarms raised by epidemiologists.
Now come out with a new study with surprising conclusions: if the mobility of Italians returns to 20% of pre-quarantine times, there could be 3,700 more deaths in 8 weeks (more than would happen if the blockade continues, ed). Piedmont leads the ranking with 1,300 victims, then Veneto (930), Tuscany (370), while in Lombardy only 190 …
It is necessary to explain well how these estimates are reached. We have taken the mobility data made available by Google and we have assumed that the conditions are exactly pre-quarantine, therefore, without distancing, testing, isolation … Therefore, they are pessimistic projections, from which emerges The most exposed second wave regions are Piedmont, Veneto, Tuscany and Liguria.
The least exposed?
Aosta Valley, Molise, Calabria, Basilicata, Marche … Even in Lombardy the data is low. This is because the famous R-index that measures transmission intensity, in Lombardy on May 1, was close to 0.6, quite low. The danger is known to start at 1.
How does Google have the mobility data of citizens?
I don’t know, in any case they are anonymous.
Second scenario: 40% mobility. It is estimated that 18 thousand more deaths in Italy. Considering that today in some regions more than 80% of workers, even if a part has never stopped, the forecast seems worrying. Right?
We are talking about statistical hypotheses based on a situation that, I repeat, considers the worst case scenario. Much will depend on compliance with containment measures, which we strongly recommend along with intensified swab surveillance, tracing and timely isolation of those infected. The situation of the infected must be rapidly x-rayed because when the hospitalization curve rises too late. This is a delicate period, in which the margins are thin and it takes little to restart the epidemic.
How did you manage to convince Prime Minister Boris Johnson to change course?
With a study on mitigation and suppression strategies from March 16. Until then, the policy was not to intervene until there was evidence.
Do you also collaborate with other governments?
Yes, several, including the United States and Italy.
How much it works
Even at night.
May 5, 2020 (change May 5, 2020 | 11:52 pm)
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