how will the new blockade be

Need for many, ghost for some, a new lock It would have exorbitant economic costs for Italy, but it would be the only “solution”, according to the informants, capable of curbing the avalanche of infections by relieving the pressure on hospitals. Will Italy have to close again, as happened in March and how are France and Germany already? Giuseppe Conte repeats on each occasion that it takes fourteen days from the introduction of thelatest Dpcm to see the effects on infections and hospitalizations. But time is running out and the contagion curve shows no signs of abating.

The new Dpcm for November 9: what the new lock will look like

Today the Minister of Economy Roberto Gualtieri He said that “although in the coming weeks we had to resort to more drastic measures to contain the epidemic, we would still be starting from a position of proven solidity and having significantly improved our capacity and willingness to respond to the health and economic emergency.” GDP in 2021 could be lower in this scenario than expected under Nadef’s programmatic framework (6 percent), but the recovery would only be postponed, it would not be jeopardized. It looks like a kind of “pre-announcement” of a new imminent closure.

According to the latest rumors, the prime minister is working on a new Dpcm that will be published next week and which will bring more restrictions on social life to avoid a total blockade. The date of Monday November 9 it would be the limit at which the new measures would come into effect. The prime minister will agree to a new tightening with the closure of commercial activities, more incentives for smart work in the public and private sectors and bets for interregional travel, probably with the use of self-certification. But let’s go in order.

The new grip that is coming will serve to face the calls “scenario 4”, the most feared and reviewed in a report by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the ministry. “Scenario 4” contemplates the “situation of critically uncontrolled transmissibility in the health system in the short term, with regional values ​​of Rt systematically and significantly higher than 1.5 (that is, with estimates of 95% CI of Rt higher than 1.5) “. At the moment they are 5 regions at risk of total blockade, in other words, they are located in stage 4. They are Lombardy, Campania, Liguria, Lazio and Valle d’Aosta, to which is added the autonomous province of Bolzano.

A similar scenario with an Rt contagion index higher than 1.5 foresees territorial restrictions, but the local authorities would not want to implement them for reasons of consensus. Therefore, it will probably be the premier who will have to do it with a new Dpcm. “No one is allowed to imagine half measures, due to the level of severity of the contagion, the only measures that are not only serious but effective are the national ones,” the Campania governor said live on Facebook. Vincenzo De Luca, regarding the hypothesis of a blockade for Naples. “Nobody says nonsense, the only measures are national, the rest are intolerable things,” he added. De Luca spoke after “very severe delays in government decisions taken with the logic of the medium that displeases everyone and does not solve problems.”

The two hypotheses about the new blockade for November 9

There are two hypotheses on the table regarding the new Presidency Decree of the Council of Ministers that will arrive on Monday, November 9. In short: a soft, soft or “French” block, or a hard block, almost “total” like the one in March. The focus is on hospital admissions and the epidemiological curve. The last bulletin Civil Protection reported almost 27,000 new cases yesterday and broke the currently positive 300,000 quota, levels never reached during the first wave. 115 new places are occupied in intensive care, while 15,964 people are hospitalized in the Covid wards (+983). “Next week we can also reach 25 thousand new cases,” Andrea Crisanti from the University of Padua said a few days ago. A good prognosis, unfortunately. If daily new infections were to exceed 50,000, a tougher lockdown would be inevitable, but this fatal prospect for now seems distant.

So, here are the two hypotheses that are being studied:

• The first is the most drastic, which is to close everything for at least a month, leaving only factories, kindergartens and elementary schools and basic necessities stores open, making it possible to move the house if not for valid reasons validated with the self-certification form. It would be a situation very close to a total blockade;
• the second foresees closures at the regional and municipal level, incentives for smart work in the public and private sectors and bets for interregional travel, always with the self-certification form.

The most likely hypothesis is that next week the Government will put new interventions on the table, taking advantage of the vote in the Chambers of Wednesday, November 4, on the communications of Giuseppe Conte. And in this way the religious holiday of November 1 and 2 would be “safeguarded”. The measures could start from the weekend, at the latest as mentioned on November 9. It could be an additional constraint for business activities (total or hourly), a new push towards smart work, perhaps even a return to self-certification, and more obstacles to interregional travel.

The French idea of ​​”soft lock”: closed and open activities

The idea of ​​Palazzo Chigi, however, remains to prevent the closure of nursery and primary schools. The prime minister seems to want to refer to the “soft” model from France by Emmanuel Macron. And then a new Dpcm would shut down everything defined as “nonessential”, probably for a month, leaving some fundamental activities open:

• Luck;
• nursery and primary schools;
• farms;
• food stores;
• pharmacies and other businesses that sell basic necessities.

You could not move out of your home without a self-certification proving the need for work, health or shopping. In essence, the new Dpcm should allow exit only for going to work, taking children to school, shopping, or for medical reasons. And the stop at the municipal and regional borders with territorial closures in the most affected cities.

The new Dpcm before November 9 to face stage 4 and the confinement in Italy

In the text of the study, reported today among others by Corriere della Sera, we read that “in a national scenario of this type, it is presumable that many regions are classified as high risk and, given the speed of diffusion and the interconnection between the different regions, it is unlikely that situations of less than moderate risk will arise “. And finally: “If the high-risk situation persists for a period of more than three weeks, it is very likely that very aggressive containment measures will be necessary.” Now Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has before him three options representing three different proposals for restrictions:

• The first is territorial blockades, limited to the urban centers most in crisis: at first glance it seems simple, in reality it would be a matter of closing large cities such as Milan, Naples, Turin and Rome;
• the second restriction is the closure of regional borders;
• the third is the closure of all schools with the extension of distance education to all types of institutes.

How long could a new lock last?

If to these restrictions is added the prohibition of mobility and the closure of essential activities, new blockade in Italy. But how long could a new lockdown last? According to the Gimbe Foundation, “without immediate closures in all high-risk areas,” it will take “at least 4 weeks of national closure to break the infection curve and allow patients to be cared for in the hospital, in order to avoid a health catastrophe worse than the first wave. ” France and Germany, on the other hand, have also decided to shut down non-essential activities for a month. As Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron announced at a press conference, the new “confinement” measures that came into force today will last until December 1, while in Germany the soft confinement desired by the Chancellor will begin on November 2 and it will last the same 4 weeks.

The plan for the confinement in Italy as of November 9 (denied by the government?)

But will one month be enough to double the contagion curve? As we know the first emergency shutdown It came in intermediate stages and lasted much longer. Conte closed schools on March 4, five days later he extended the travel ban throughout Italy, while on March 11 he proclaimed the true closure by closing bars, restaurants and shops. On March 21, the prime minister with a new Dpcm decreed the lockout of industrial and productive activities considered “non-essential.” The peak of infections came just ten days later, on March 21, when 6557 new cases were registered, but from that moment on the decline was very slow, so much so that the newspapers began to talk about plateaus. As of April 5, there were still 4,316 infections in Italy, while the real decline started only at the end of the month. On May 10, after two months of lockdown, the new positives were 802.

In contrast, the peak in intensive care was recorded on April 4 (4,068), 24 days after the lockout. Also in this case, the decline was slow and gradual, so much so that as of May 10 there were still 1,027 people in critical condition. The hospitalization curve followed a similar pattern.

However, compared to the first wave, there are differences: today we are more prepared and more prepared to manage the virus, both individually and in health centers. It must also be said that the objective of a possible new closure would not be to eradicate the virus (an ambition that as we know has been unrealistic), but to “cool” it and stop its spread to give encouragement to hospitals and try to resist until spring when (maybe) the vaccine will arrive.

About him New scientistBritish Science Weekly, Claire Wilson mentions the possibility of introducing even shorter blocks, of up to two weeks. These days, we read in the article translated by ‘International’“The idea is gaining ground that governments could introduce a series of pre-emptive closures, each lasting about two weeks. In this case, the closings could be scheduled to coincide with school holidays, in order to minimize negative consequences for the education system. In the UK it would mean imposing a blockade every two months ”.

Wilson explains what the differences are and the possible advantages compared to a “classic” lock. “Preventive closures would be introduced periodically at predetermined times, even if the number of contagion cases was relatively low.” Knowing the date of the closings in advance could also reduce the impact on the economy, “while the short duration and the predetermined term could make them more acceptable to the population.” For now, this is just a hypothesis, even if Northern Ireland and Wales have already taken the path of brief lockdowns.