How we were the day that Conte decided the confinement (better than today)

“We are in a different situation different from the first wave: we cannot propose the same strategy again when we were not prepared and we were forced to close for the whole country. We are now in a significantly different situation, ”the Prime Minister said today. Giuseppe Conte at the press conference a Palazzo Chigi, reiterating concepts already expressed on Sunday night after the approval of the new Dpcm. the Prime Minister He added that “more restrictive measures can be ordered at the territorial level by regional presidents and also by mayors when the critical situation requires it.”

But is the situation really that different from the first phase of the pandemic? While it is true that ICU beds have gone from 5,179 to 6,458 (with the aim of quickly reaching 8,732), and that our monitoring capacity has improved enormously, the numbers of contagion and especially hospitalizations, they say something else.

How we were when Conte declared Italy a red zone

On March 9, the day Conte ad Since the whole of Italy was a red zone, the Civil Protection bulletin registered 1,797 new cases of coronavirus. And the fact that the number of swabs analyzed was absolutely unmatched if we think about today’s numbers is worth little. Others and more reliable indicators in fact, they tell us that on March 9 the situation was not so disastrous if we compare it with today, even better in some respects.

For example, there were 733 intensive care patients compared to 870 today; 4316 hospitalized patients (today 8545), 97 deaths compared to 89 in the last bulletin. Scared by those numbers, Conte decided to close schools and introduced a travel ban across the country, except for “proven work reasons” or “serious health or family needs.”

The new Dpcm that closed bars and restaurants

After that fatal day (“our darkest hour”, said Conte) the numbers got worse. Just two days later, on March 11, the prime minister signed a new decree, this time much heavier: bars, restaurants and almost all non-essential activities were closed. Meanwhile, hospitalized patients became 5,838 (although less than today) and intensive care patients 1,028. But it was mostly the jump in deaths (196 in one day) that convinced the prime minister of the need for a bigger squeeze.

The newsletter for March 11 and today October 20: the tables

Admissions only started to decline in early April

The virus was hitting hard in Lombardy, which only accounted for 617 deaths out of a total of 827, but was almost absent in other regions of south-central Italy. However, Conte decided to impose a rigid blockade throughout the national territory that was only relaxed on the following May 4.

Despite containment measures, for a not inconsiderable time the situation continued to worsen: on March 23, hospitalized patients with symptoms exceeded 20,000 and in the intensive care there were 3,204 people. There were 601 deaths that day. Only in late April did the number of hospitalized patients slowly decline.

Because the situation is no better than in March

Compared to then, today infections are not concentrated only in two or three regions and, consequently, the stress on health structures, also by virtue of the greater number of beds, is more contained. But it won’t be for long.

The first confinement started when there were 8 people in intensive care in Lazio. They grew to 200 more than a month later due to the delayed effect of the measures. Today we are at 111 and we have not initiated any blockade. (thanks to @andcapocci) pic.twitter.com/VdxUEWhzmL

– christian Raimo (@christianraimo) October 19, 2020

The admission of the Ats Milan of not being able to track the infections anymore, and the estimate made by the Lombardy region itself that it expects on October 31 about 600 hospitalized in intensive care and up to 4,000 hospitalized, does not bode well. The Councilor for Health of the Lazio region, Alessio D’Amato, told “Foglio” today that “currently the number of beds occupied for hospitalizations is equivalent to 40 percent of the total” but that “for every hundred people come in. About 40 are leaving “and that is why” it doesn’t take long to understand that at this rate our region has a month of autonomy. “According to D’Amato, Lazio is one of the regions that best responds: in other areas of Italy, hospitals could be saturated in two weeks.

As virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco points out, today is the largest increase in intensive care occupations since March 30 when they increased by 75 and also the largest increase in hospitalizations since March 27 when they increased in 1276. If the trend continues, Thursday or no later than Friday we will have exceeded the number of people admitted to intensive care on March 11 (day of the national closure).

Coronavirus: how the tracking jumped (wrong)