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The launch of vaccination programs in the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union in recent days marks the first steps towards the end of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Many countries have also started alternative programs based on their own vaccine, such as Russia and China.
In the coming months, presumably, we will see the loosening of restrictions concomitant with rising vaccination rates.
Given the situation there an expectation of economic recovery with the reopening of countries. However, the positive impact may be limited in many states. The vaccination process is likely to be challenging and complex, especially when you will have to struggle to achieve vaccination rates. objective in line with the largest and most organized countries. This will likely lead to a comparative economic disadvantage and open the door to a black market for the vaccine, exploited by criminal groups, since some governments do not have the necessary infrastructure to distribute In an efficient way the vaccine.
This new context will reshape relationships and international alliances based on the ability of countries to obtain sufficient quantities of the vaccine, particularly among those that are already economically and politically employees from its allies or foreign aid. Delays in logistics and production will affect many countries and this could lead to security crisis and possible protests due to opposition to compulsory vaccination.
There are also a number of political risks that should be closely monitored over the next year. The Covid-19 crisis has created all manner of political risks, including stability, public order, integrity, and governance risks, and businesses should expect these risks to escalate further as the pandemic resumes. Governments must act with short-term national interests in mind.
Also there international solidarity it is in trouble as national interests have been given priority. As such, vaccination programs are likely to have the same nationalistic focus. Governments have shown modest support for the multilateral Covax initiative to support vaccination in low-income countries. China and the United States have decided not to fund the initiative in favor of negotiating bilateral vaccine agreements with developing countries. Consequently, we can expect nationalism to also shape investments and the trade policy at least in the short term, and companies should expect closer scrutiny in the coming months.
The risks and challenges to internal stability are high in these situations, as countries adopt a caring approach towards its citizens to address and contain the precarious economic conditions that the pandemic has generated. This will not be limited to countries without natural resources, but countries with large oil reserves will also suffer from low oil prices.
Protests, riots and strikes were limited during the pandemic, but we should expect that to change in the 2021. This could lead to political unrest linked directly or indirectly to Covid-19. The recovery process will be long and difficult. Countries could face serious risks if they do not guarantee vaccines to their citizens, regardless of whether the reason is financial, diplomatic, or even strategic.
The economic and political risks generated by the crisis are likely to be felt more during the vaccination phase in some countries, as the recovery could intensify social tensions. This will require careful management by companies and governments. Therefore, it is important to start thinking about how to administer vaccination carefully and regardless of support.
This will require a more efficient approach to addressing issues and should include a communication and trust-building strategy able to influence public opinion to raise awareness, create a sense of reasonableness and contain political and economic frustration, with all that could ensue in terms of security.
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