How the contagion curve has changed in Lombardy in November

12/01/2020 Italy, World



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A source of relief. And of hope. But at the same time a call to the commitment of each and every one, so that the sacrifices that accompanied this second wave of the coronavirus are not frustrated by behaviors that we really cannot afford.

The trend of infections is decreasing significantly. And the passage of the Lombardy from red zone to orange zone, to make the evolution of the situation even more evident is the comparison of data for the four weeks of November, a month that we left behind a few hours ago and that brought with it in the first days the reintroduction of strict measures for our region.

The graph we reported above, which is based on official data published by Lombard Welfare on the pandemic, clearly shows how the last week has been recorded. a significant decrease in the number of new positivity cases emerged from the previous three. An improvement that occurs, far from being accidental, exactly two weeks after the introduction of the red zone: in practice, the November 6th, after 14 days it was registered the first appreciable benefits in numerical terms.

In particular, as the graph shows, given a greater number of tampons in the last week than in the previous one, the incidence of new positives seems to have decreased significantly (more than 15 thousand fewer cases even in the presence of eight thousand more tampons). Translated into a percentage, it goes from 20.7% of positives in the total swabs of the first week to 20.4% of the two plants to decrease drastically 13.3% of the week just ended.

Retry the reduced social interaction it remains the most powerful weapon available at this time, waiting for the tested vaccines to be licensed for commercialization, widely distributed, and effectively administered.

Between 21 indicators that he national control room Monitors to update the mapping and prohibitions in force in Italy, the RT is one of those that briefly allows us to appreciate the contagion trend. And yet, its value for our region, even in the second wave among the most affected, although in a very different way from one province to another, has decreased from1.99 of the last week of October, at1.46 November 1, at1.15 of the next until the substantial stabilization of the penultimate (1.17). The report for the week just ended will be released on Friday only, but we already know that the value has fallen around the1.08. Still high, above that threshold of 1 that may allow you to venture more than cautious optimism.

Another key issue that should not be overlooked, especially from a logical perspective, is related to pressure on sanitary facilities. In a very simple way, the above graphic highlights one aspect: if the red zone and the semi-blockade have contributed to significantly reduce new infections, the impact on the number of beds occupied in the common rooms of hospitals and intensive care units is not so appreciable. To be optimistic, we have to turn the world clock back one month. A sign that a possible worsening of the trend, perhaps in light of few rediscovered freedoms that the orange zone has brought with it – could have even more serious consequences at the level of the sanitary machinery. Reasoning about Christmas and what we can do or not do to feel close to those who are clear to us is inevitable. But doing it without taking these aspects into account could hold much more than nasty surprises under the tree.