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If it was just a matter of colors, it can be said that Lombardy is more likely to be yellow after Easter than orange before the holidays. It is not a puzzle, but the elements on the table in the control room, which, like every Friday, will meet in Rome to update the scenarios that will be delivered to Minister Roberto Speranza, all go from one side, toconfirm red light for next week. On the one hand, the spirit of prudence with which Prime Minister Mario Draghi dictated the line to Parliament so that the Regions would understand. In the Lombard reports, however, there is an element of extreme confidence: it concerns the trend of infections.Last week’s cases (30,882) were for the first time less than the previous one (33,061). Confirming the beak eyebrow. A consolidated figure even today, with the new positives of just over 4 thousand.
An important stop diffusion confirmed by RT trends: all provincial curves flex, particularly in Brescia (0.83), where the delta is wider given the very high growth of cases in the last month. Rt above 1, albeit slightly, only in Sondrio, Mantua, Cremona and Lodi. With the particularly encouraging case of Milan, at 0.91. But the index indicates a trend, which is about to happen.
Lombardy’s problem is still the present, driven by the bad numbers of the recent past. For this will come preserved in red band, precisely because the incidence of cases remains high: the regional average, although slightly decreasing, is 299, but for the first time below the psychological ceiling of 300. Brescia (435) and Mantua (390), where the highest figures however, they are down, about 15 percent. The confirmation that the restrictive measures adopted, first the reinforced orange, then the red zone, are bearing fruit. And the confirmation that the variants, in particular the English one (found in 63 percent of the tests) have had an especially impact on the eastern part of the Region, comes from the still high data from Monza (380), Lecco and Sondrio in hike from last week.
The lowest incidence is in Bergamo (170), the most important drop in Pavia (-20 percent). In addition to Rt, Milan confirms “yellow” parameters also for incidence, which returned, albeit slightly, below the limit of 250. The other element to be discounted for the Region is the pressure on the hospital system. The most contained data on current hospitalizations do not hide the absolute ones, with 845 beds occupied in intensive care and 7,178 in the other rooms of the Covid. But the admissions data will be a game that could change next week, when declining infections will also gradually reduce the percentage of patients with more severe symptoms. For this reason, the horizon in two weeks, after the Easter holidays, could be much more yellow than that.
March 24, 2021 | 13:35
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