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Therefore it exists. It was kept confidential, if not secret. And it’s not just a “study”, but a real one Plan for the pandemic “ against the spread of Covid-19. The document that has been talked about for a few days has come out, despite being the minister just a few days ago. Roberto Speranza that the CTS coordinator, Agostino Miozzo, have professed their nonexistence.
In summary, and reading the 40-page pdf published today by Messenger Service, It is not well understood why the Ministry of Health did not want to publish it in recent days. How ilGiornale.it reconstructed (here), that underneath there was something not very evident. The first time the dg talked about it in April Andrea Urbani. In an interview she referred to three scenarios, explaining that the plan had been cataloged “so as not to scare the population” with projections and figures that were too dramatic. He said it was ready since January, although perhaps it was a timing error. The fact is that many have set out after that document. But when some reporters asked for it, the ministry replied that it did not have it. And he has postponed it to an “ongoing study.” Faced with a request for access to the documents, Civil Protection sent a Republic what he considers the only document attributable to the “plan”: that is, a study prepared by the researcher Stefano merler from the Kessler Foundation. Position, in fact, reaffirmed by Miozzo in an interview and by Speranza at the Done.
The objectives of the Plan
But there is. The “plan” probably follows the “study” and incorporates your data. However, it was first redacted on February 19, redrafted on February 22 (after Codogno), definitively approved by the CTS on March 2, and then updated as the Italian infection worsened. The purpose of the “Plan” is “to ensure proper management ofinfection in a territorial and hospital context without compromising the continuity of care, rationalizing access to care, to ensure optimal use of resources. Providing appropriate care will reduce morbidity and mortality by mitigating the effects of pandemic“The document describes the needs and actions to be taken: the provision of masks, the increase of beds in intensive care, the reorganization of hospitals. Later, all the questions turned out to be the Achilles heel of the Italian response to the disease.
Risk levels
The Plan contemplates “three scenarios based on the country’s capacity to respond to the demand for assistance related to different people risk levelsThe former seems more like a case study: there is a “sustained but sporadic transmission and local spread of infection and the ability of the NHS to respond through extraordinary and predetermined management of preventive interventions.” The other two scenarios are different. In the case of “risk level 2“With the R0 estimated at 1.15, there is a” generalized and sustained local transmission with greater pressure on the NHS that responds by activating extraordinary pre-ordered measures. “The mathematical model speaks of 672 thousand possible confirmed symptomatic cases and 88 thousand people in intensive care. In fact, it is on the basis of this scenario that the risk is assumed that “the beds available in ordinary” are not sufficient “to cover the care needs that would arise”.risk level 3On the other hand, a “generalized and sustained local transmission is expected with greater pressure on the NHS that responds by activating extraordinary measures that also involve non-health organizations and structures”. The estimated LR0 is 1.25 and the hypothetical cases 1.4 million, with 194 thousand resuscitation patients. The hospital supply, the text reads, “must be deeply reorganized with the expansion of healthcare spaces, since the number of confirmed cases and cases with severe clinical pictures far exceeds the current equipment of hospital beds, with special reference to hospital facilities infectious diseases and intensive care “.
Intensive therapy
The sore point is that of feedback. At the beginning of the epidemic there were only 5,324 beds available, which were 85% occupied. By reducing surgical activity by 50%, experts are confident of being able to free up to 1,597 ICU places, of which 103 in isolation. It will not be enough, as we know, given that on April 3 Italy will register 4,068 seriously hospitalized patients. And in fact, already in the Plan a gap between available and necessary beds that, at the time of the peak, could range between 14,000 and 34,000 places.
The masks
A similar discourse is also addressed for the admissions of patients with mild symptoms who need hospitalization. The document estimates a need of 72,844 beds in scenario 2 and 169,260 in scenario 3. But it is mainly about Dpi that is focused. The Plan recalls that, especially in intensive facilities, “it is necessary” to provide these operational units with stocks of overalls, masks, shields, hoods, gloves and other aids in various sizes and sizes. We need supplies “adequate to the expected volume of patients according to the level of activity expected by the organization.” Italy at that time had none. However, a few days earlier, on February 15, the government had gifted 18 tons of medical supplies to China. Only to find himself unprotected.
